Vietnam’s business confidence index
(BCI) in the second quarter increased 31 points over the first quarter,
reaching 130 points, according to a recent survey.
The survey was conducted by the Vietnam World Vest Base Financial
Intelligence Services (WVB FISL) and the PetroVietnam Finance
Investment and Consultancy Company (PVFC Invest), who surveyed 192
companies in 11 key industries from June 11 through the first week of
July.
The result signaled recovery and positive growth for Vietnam’s economy in the near future.
When asked about the country’s economy, 53 per cent of those
interviewed said the overall economic conditions had improved compared
to 12 months ago and 75 per cent believed overall economic conditions
would be better over the next 12 months.
As many as 59 per cent expected to increase worker hire in the
next 12 months and 60 per cent thought their companies would invest
more in fixed assets over the next 12 months.
In the survey, most CEOs, managing directors and business managers
also expressed the great confidence they had in their companies’
revenues and profits for the next 12 months. Up to 81 per cent gave
higher sales projections while 72 per cent expected their profits would
increase.
All respondents also indicated they trusted the Government’s key
measures to boost consumer demand, including reduction of consumer and
corporate loan interest rates, and wide dissemination of information
about consumer demand stimulus policies.
However, 51 per cent of the interviewees said that interest rates
on consumer loans from banks should be between 5 and 8 per cent to help
stimulate domestic consumer demand.
A total of 48 per cent of respondents were worried about the
depreciation of the Vietnamese dong against the US dollar, and forecast
that the rate between the two currencies would be more than 18,000 VND
per USD by the end of 2009.
When asked to make a forecast about the inflation rate over the
next 12 months, 42 per cent said they believed the inflation rate would
be between 5 and 10 per cent. Thirty per cent put it between 10 and 15
per cent, only 9 per cent pulled it down to below 5 per cent, while 6
per cent said it would be between 15 to 20 per cent./.