Vietnam ’s economy is gradually entering a more stable macroeconomic
environment after a prolonged period of heightened turbulence, said a
World Bank report.
At a press conference to
announce the World Bank’s East Asia-Pacific Economic Update 2012 in
Hanoi on May 23, the chief economic expert of the WB in Vietnam, Deepak
Mishra said while Vietnam’s economy has started to stabilise, the
significant tightening of macroeconomic policies, along with an
uncertain global economic environment, are beginning to take a toll on
economic growth.
The country’s real GDP growth
decelerated from 6.8 percent in 2010 to 5.9 percent in 2011 and further
to 4.0 percent in the first quarter of 2012, he said.
According to the report, tighter domestic policies in 2011 have
dampened investment, particularly in infrastructure and real estate, and
private consumption. Thanks to a combination of these measures and
falling food prices, inflation declined to 10.5 percent year-on-year in
April, 2012 from a peak of 23 percent in August, 2011.
Maintaining macroeconomic stability remains the Vietnamese
Government’s priority. The country’s economic growth is expected to be
around 5.7 percent, and year-end inflation is forecast to decline to
below 10 percent in 2012.
In a move to shore up
the economy, the State Bank of Vietnam reduced policy interest rates
by 200 basis points in March and April from 15 to 13 percent, and
announced further reductions of at least 100 basis points every quarter
during 2012, the report said.
Cooling demand and
slow credit growth should dampen the inflationary impact of the rate
cuts, which at the same time should help ease financing costs for the
private sector.
The report also said that
Vietnam ’s public debt is likely to remain sustainable if economic
recovery continues and authorities remain on the current path of fiscal
consolidation.
Deepak Mishra pointed out that
Vietnam ’s near-term policy challenge is to maintain macroeconomic
stability and restore confidence among investors, while addressing
longer-term structural reforms.
He noted that the
Government is stepping up efforts to restructure small and medium-sized
enterprises (SME), public investment management and the financial
sector.
A number of key regulations, including
those involving medium-term investment planning, management and
supervision of State capital investment in SOE, and performance
monitoring of SOE are likely to be enacted during 2012.
Even if only a subset of the announced structural reforms is
implemented steadfastly, Vietnam should return to a more sustainable
macroeconomic environment while laying the foundations for greater
efficiency and productivity to drive medium and long-term growth, he
said.
The WB report also indicated that growth
remains strong in developing East Asia and Pacific, recording 8.2
percent in 2011, although it has slowed from its post-crisis peaks.
In 2012, East Asia will remain the strongest performing region,
even though its annual growth will further moderate as a result of a
continued weak external environment.
The region is
projected to grow by 7.6 percent this year, with slower expansion in
China pulling down much of the regional aggregate.-VNA