The National Centre for Socio-economic Information and Forecasting (NCEIF) predicts that the country’s export earnings will be between 58.7 billion and 61.3 billion USD this year.

NCEIF, which is managed by the Ministry of Planning and Investment, estimates that the figure will decrease by 2.2 to 6.4 percent from the 2008 figure of 63 billion USD.

The centre, however, says export earnings may equal the 2008 figure if the Government issues strict directives and the global economy shows signs of recovery.

NCEIF says it’s assessment is based on domestic export trends in recent years and the ability of Vietnam ’s major export markets, as well as the global economy, to recover.

It also says that due to the global economic recession, almost all Vietnam’s major export markets--like the US, the EU, Japan, and countries in North East Asia and ASEAN--will only slightly increase imports of Vietnamese commodities, except for textiles and garments, food and foodstuffs.

In addition, it’s unlikely that the prices of Vietnam ’s major export lines will hit former highs--even crude oil, which is one of the country’s main export staples, accounting for 20 percent of the country’s total export earnings, NCEIF emphasises.

If these forecasts come true, Vietnam will suffer negative export growth this year, for the first time since 1986 when the country began its renovation process.

NCEIF proposes three strategies to avoid this, focussing on exchange rate policy, the use of foreign currency, and policies to support credit for exporters.

It suggests the State Bank of Vietnam widen the exchange rate band to +/- 6 and then to +/- 7 percentage points, and that it proceed with caution to avoid delivering destabilising shocks to the national economy.

The State should adopt specific regulations and mechanisms to diversify the use of different types of foreign currency, such as EUR, JPY, GBP, and CNY, in export contracts, so as not to rely too much on the US dollar as it now does, NCEIF says.

In regard to policies to support credit for exporters, NCEIF proposes the Government use part of its stimulus package to provide them direct credit, and/or serve as guarantor for payments by those businesses which have proven they can deliver and can reliably execute payment procedures./.