Experts optimistic about 2018 stock market prospects
Experts are sanguine about the health of the stock market in 2018 even as they acknowledge likely risks and imbalances.
Buyers at the Vincom Shopping Mall in Da Nang city (Photo VNA)
Hanoi (VNA) - Experts are sanguine about the health of the stock market in 2018 even as they acknowledge likely risks and imbalances.
Voicing her opinion at an online discussion on December 20, Pham Minh Huong, Chairwoman of the Board at VNDIRECT Securities Corporation, said the stock market’s 2017 growth was spectacular but not surprising.
Her prediction for 2018 was that the finance, energy and
manufacturing sectors will experience strong growth, which means they are
likely to be recommended to both up-and-coming and experienced investors by
financial experts.
Huong said that although the banking and finance sector would
still face a lot of institutional and bad debt risks, commercial banks,
securities and insurance companies have learned their lessons and are well
prepared for the challenges to come.
With Vietnam’s fast-growing consumer economy, the
manufacturing and energy sectors will always be attractive. Aviation is another
safe bet, as living standards and tourism increase, she said.
The year 2018 is set to mark the beginning of Vietnam’s next
stage of financial growth, with the Vietnamese stock market upgraded to
emerging market status in late 2019 or early 2020.
Huong also expected the VN-Index to surpass its peak of 1,170
points in 2017, and she was backed by some experts who foresaw a very
optimistic 2018 scenario of 1,500 to 1,700 points.
The 2017 stock market growth will continue to be supported by
the world economic growth cycle, she added.
In the same vein, prominent economist Vo Tri Thanh said that his research shows Vietnam’s stock market growth rate will continue at a high, although investors should expect lagging periods in 2018.
In the same vein, prominent economist Vo Tri Thanh said that his research shows Vietnam’s stock market growth rate will continue at a high, although investors should expect lagging periods in 2018.
The world economy in general and the Vietnamese stock market
in particular are likely to face some risks, as leading global stock markets go
through adjustments in late 2018 and early 2019.
The Eurozone is highly unlikely to maintain its economic
stimulus packages, and Chinese public debt continues to rise.
Income inequality in leading economies, trade protectionism,
uncertainty about major trade and investment negotiations, housing bubbles,
geo-political tensions and inflation rates will all begin to increase, Thanh
predicted.
Vietnam’s 2018 economic forecast remains positive, but not
at 2017 levels, he claimed.
The 2018 growth target approved by the National Assembly, of
6.5 to 6.7 per cent, shows a certain lowering of expectations and an increase
in caution, compared to 2017, Thanh said.
Besides global risks, the need to synchronise short-term
growth and institutional restructuring should not be ignored, he said.
While agreeing with Thanh and Huong, Truong Van Phuoc, acting
Chairman of the Vietnam National Financial
Supervision Council (NFSC), said that the push for a credit growth of
over 20 per cent since the second quarter this year over concerns that GDP
growth could fall short of the 2017 target was understandable, but the key
issue was growth quality, not quantity.
At the moment, stock market investors are pouring capital
into securities and real estate, forming an indirect growth channel for the
Vietnamese economy, he said.
But Phuoc expressed concern over imbalances in the financial
markets, especially the lack of harmony between the currency and capital
markets.
He strongly advocated the establishment of a moderate-level
financial market with accommodating and open policies.
Bang Hyun Woo, Samsung Vietnam’s Senior Vice President and
Chief Relations Officer, shared his thoughts on cryptocurrencies, mainly
bitcoin, which he considered to have both good and bad sides.
He believed that Vietnamese investors trading in bitcoin can
have some impact on the exchange rates.
He advised investors to be very careful and to withdraw their
investment in the coin investment at the earliest sign of the bubble bursting.
Jointly organised by the online news sites Tri Thuc Tre and CafeF, the discussion reviewed economic growth in 2017 and prospects for 2018
prospects, focusing in particular on investment opportunities, equitisation of
major state-owned enterprises, and the future of cryptocurrency.-VNA