Hanoi (VNA) – The 550-billion-USD export target has emerged as a major stress test for Vietnam’s trade sector in 2026, as heightened global uncertainties and the diminishing returns of an extensive growth model sharpen concerns over how to sustain expansion without undermining long-term stability.
Mapping challenges
In 2025, despite headwinds from geopolitical tensions, shifting tariff policies among major economies, and domestic disruptions caused by natural disasters and flooding, Vietnam’s total trade turnover still exceeded 930 billion USD, marking an 18.2% increase year on year. Exports reached a historic high of 475 billion USD, rising by nearly 70 billion USD from 2024.
Looking ahead to 2026, however, the global economic and trade landscape offers little certainty. A host of challenges persists both at home and abroad, while market forecasts have become increasingly volatile.
Speaking at the 2026 Export Promotion Conference, Nguyen Anh Son, head of the Agency of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), noted that export growth continues to be constrained by structural weaknesses, including heavy reliance on foreign-invested enterprises, dependence on imported inputs, and limited capacity to fully comply with increasingly stringent international standards.
Beyond internal issues, exporters are also grappling with a fragile global recovery marked by mounting public debt, geopolitical risks, rising protectionism and the impact of Ú reciprocal tariff measures.
As a result, achieving double-digit export growth in 2026 will require early, coordinated and sustained efforts from ministries, local authorities and the business community.
Under the Government’s Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP dated January 8, 2026, Vietnam aims to raise total export turnover by around 15–16% compared to 2025. According to MoIT estimates, this will translate into full-year exports of roughly 546–550 billion USD.
Meeting this target will require average monthly exports of 45–46 billion USD. In 2025, however, monthly exports peaked at 44 billion USD only once, in December, while figures from July to November hovered around 42–43 billion USD.
Can Van Luc, Chief Economist at the Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV), said the target will be difficult to achieve, noting that most forecasts currently point to growth of just 12–14%. He added that export structure remains a concern, as high-tech products such as electronics continue to gain ground, while traditional sectors like textiles and footwear, though still expanding, are showing signs of losing momentum.
Broadening export horizons
Tran Thanh Hai, deputy head of the Agency of Foreign Trade, stressed that as room for scale-driven growth narrows, continued reliance on volume expansion carries growing risks. Heavy dependence on major markets such as the US and China also exposes exports to sudden policy shifts.
After recording a sharp rise in export earnings to nearly 8.92 billion USD in 2025, driven largely by record coffee prices, the coffee sector now faces the challenge of sustaining growth. Le Duc Huy, Vice President of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, said the focus for 2026 should be on maintaining steady, sustainable progress rather than repeating exceptional gains.
While prices play a role, experts emphasise that adaptability to stricter market requirements, particularly on traceability and sustainability, will be decisive.
To preserve its standing as a major trading nation, Vietnam needs to diversify markets by making more effective use of its 17 free trade agreements, expand service exports such as logistics and tourism, and strengthen trade promotion and national branding efforts.
At the same time, continued investment in foundational industries, higher domestic value added, more secure input supply chains, and stronger research and development capacity will be critical.
According to the agency, shifting from volume-driven growth to a model focused on quality, value added and internal resilience is no longer optional but imperative.
Phan Duc Hieu, a standing member of the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee, called for a more open and flexible export strategy that fully taps available growth space beyond traditional flagship products.
Meanwhile, cross-border e-commerce is emerging as an increasingly important growth channel. Pham Tan Dat, head of the logistics committee at the Vietnam E-commerce Association, said digital trade offers significant opportunities not only in B2C retail but also in B2B exports. Online import–export revenue has already exceeded 4.5 billion USD and is expected to rise further in the coming years.
In the next development phase, online exports should be positioned as a key growth pillar to enhance the value of Vietnamese goods, broaden market reach and improve business resilience to global shocks, Dat said.
To achieve export growth of over 15% as directed by the Government, the MoIT said it will prioritise a set of core measures in 2026, including expanding production capacity, developing new export products, increasing domestic content and value added, accelerating the shift from processing to manufacturing, and proactively addressing trade barriers and defence measures./.
