Nikkei: Southeast Asia's soaring exports fuel hopes of recovery in 2022
Hanoi (VNA) – Southeast Asian
countries look poised to continue recovering this year from the economic havoc
caused by COVID-19 pandemic, with brisk exports driving the rebound, reported Nikkei Asia.
The article said the Asian Development Bank (ADB)
forecast a 5.1 percent rise in gross domestic product for Southeast Asia
this year. That represents an acceleration from the 3 percent estimate for
2021, when the coronavirus shut down factories in Malaysia and Vietnam during
the summer, contributing to global supply chain turmoil.
The economic recovery will likely
spur central banks, which largely kept its rates unchanged last year, to shift
to monetary tightening. Anticipated rate hikes by the US will also add
depreciation pressure on regional currencies, necessitating tightening. But the
continued threat of the coronavirus, including the fast-spreading Omicron
variant, complicates the picture for central banks, it added.
With
the economic picture expected to improve, central banks that cut interest rates
in 2020 amid the pandemic, then held steady in 2021, are considering changing
course. Economists increasingly expect rate hikes to be on the table in major
economies during the second half of 2022.
The Singapore-based
United Overseas Bank predicts rate hikes in Indonesia, Malaysia, the
Philippines and Thailand this year.
However,
these monetary policy scenarios and expectations of growth could be upended if
the Omicron variant lingers. Southeast Asia has seen fewer cases than western
nations, but many countries have been forced to impose curbs such as suspending
quarantine-free travel.
The sluggish
recovery of the tourism industry hindered growth in 2021, and a delayed
reopening of cross-border travel could offset some of the benefits of rising
exports this year.
The
ADB predicted relatively subdued inflation in Southeast Asia this year, at 2.5
percent suggesting that this will not be a major factor in central bank
decisions./.