Stock uptrend likely despite divergence

Hanoi (VNS/VNA) - Stock analysts have predicted the market will likely extend gains this week but divergence will continue in the context of third-quarter earning reports.

The VN-Index on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange rose 1.63 percent in all five trading sessions last week, closing October 13 at 820.95 points. The benchmark index has expanded over 2 percent since the beginning of this month.

On the Hanoi Stock Exchange, the HNX-Index increased 1.05 percent last week, ending October 13 at 109.11 points. The northern market index edged up 1.3 percent since early October.

Liquidity also improved with an average of 188.7 million shares worth a combined 3.8 trillion VND (167.4 million USD) being traded per session on the two exchanges. These figures represented growth of 10.2 percent in trading volume and 22.6 percent in trading value compared to the previous session.

However, the cash flow only focused on certain stocks, creating a strong division.

Last week’s rally was mainly driven by large-cap stocks, particularly on the VN30 basket, which tracks the top 30 largest shares by market value and liquidity on the HCM Stock Exchange.

Mobile phone retailer Mobile World Group (MWG) gained 6.3 percent for the week, followed by real estate giant Vingroup (VIC), up 6.5 percent; IT group FPT (FPT), up 5 percent, brewer Sabeco (SAB), up 4.6 percent; PV Gas (GAS), private quity firm Masan Group (MSN) and budget airline Vietjet (VJC) each growing by over 2 percent.

Among banks, VPBank was the biggest gainer with a weekly gain of 7.9 percent; BIDV (BID) rallied by over 1 percent, while others such as Vietcombank (VCB) and Military Bank (MBB) increased by less than 1 percent.

Nguyen Van Hanh, a broker at Sai Gon-Hanoi Securities JSC, said large caps will likely continue to grow and be a major market supporter this week because leading companies are expected to report good earnings.

Hanh said the financial stocks, particularly banks and securities companies, will have more growth opportunities as these sectors are forecast to achieve high profits. Besides banks which have continuously gained value in recent weeks, securities shares started to rise last week.

Shares of MB Securities (MBS) climbed 8.3 percent; Viet Capital Securities (VCI) rose 7 percent; HCM Securities Corp (HCM) grew 4.8 percent; and Sai Gon-Hanoi Securities (SHS) was up 1.6 percent.

According to Nguyen Duy Dinh, a stock analyst at MB Securities Co, with the strong growth of the stock market since the beginning of this year, securities companies have bright prospect. Revenues from all core businesses, from brokerage services to self investment and margin lending, all increased.

Apart from securities companies, realty stocks also have rising potential thanks to favorable development of the real estate market this year.

According to BIDV Securities Co’s report, about 26 listed companies on the two national stock exchanges have released their third-quarter earnings with total net profits of 937 billion VND, a temporary decline of 15 percent from the previous quarter.

However, some analysts reckon investors will start to sell stocks when their companies disclose earnings results to book short profits.

Despite possible divergence, analysts are optimistic about the market trend this week with the Sai Gon-Hanoi Securities forecasting the VN-Index may touch 830 points.

On the negative side, foreign investors remained net sellers on the two exchanges last week with total trading volume of over 17.5 million shares, equivalent to combined net sell value of nearly 551 billion VND.-VNA