Thailand devises three scenarios for tourism recovery hinh anh 1Visitors to the Grand Palace in Bangkok, Thailand (Photo: Xinhua/VNA)

Bangkok (VNA) – The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has envisioned three scenarios for the recovery pace of the country’s tourism next year, with the worst case being a contraction of revenue from international visitors to 296 billion THB (about 9.5 billion USD).

Local media quoted TAT Governor Yuthasak Supasorn as saying that the worst-case scenario, in which the country only allows international commercial flights to resume in the last quarter of 2021 amid a prolonged pandemic and global economic downturn, will see Thailand welcome just 6.14 million foreign tourists, mostly from Asia.

The worst-case scenario for the domestic market is a nationwide lockdown that forces economic growth to plunge 8 percent year-on-year, resulting in 68.4 million trips for the full year, generating 380 billion THB.

If there is a partial lockdown and an economic contraction of 3 percent, the number of domestic trips is estimated at 76.2 million, contributing 458 billion THB to the country.

The base case is for tourism to start a recovery path by the third quarter, with Thailand initially welcoming tourists from short-haul markets. At that time, tourists from Europe should gradually return during the summer break in July and August 2021, before fully rebounding by the end of the year.

Thailand will receive 12.5 million international travellers and 618 billion THB in revenue in the base-case scenario.

If the country reports zero local infections, while GDP growth is at 5 percent and the consumer confidence index falls 3 percent, there will be 84.92 million domestic trips with 491 billion THB in spending.

In the best-case scenario, total tourism revenue will reach 1.52 trillion THB, with Thailand recovering at the fastest pace in the second quarter.

Yuthasak said the agency estimates 20.5 million tourists coming from Asia and Europe during the summer break, which will generate 977 billion THB. Local travellers will take 89.2 million trips with 548 billion THB in spending if there are appropriate benefits to stimulate the market.

In the first six months of 2020, the number of foreign visitors to this country stood at 6.69 million, a year-on-year decline of 66 percent. The TAT predicted that foreign arrivals this year may plunge to 7 million, compared to the record of 39.8 million in 2019, if Thailand remains closed for international travellers in the fourth quarter of 2020./.