Vietnam to have 1.5 million 'surplus' adult males by 2034: analysis

Students in the central province of Nghe An eagerly join a game in a ceremony in response to the International Girls’ Day October 11. (Photo: VNA)

Hanoi (VNS/VNA) — Vietnam faces a significantly imbalanced sex ratio at birth (SRB) that will mean by 2034, about 1.5 million men will not be able to marry wives, a study by the General Statistics Office and the United Nations Population Fund has found.

The analysis was based on the results of the 2019 Population and Housing Census, which were announced on December 19, 2019.

The preference for families to have a son was reflected largely in prenatal sex selection as early as the first parity (the first time a woman gives birth), with the SRB for the first parity being 109.5 boys per 100 girls and rising for the third and higher parities (119.8 boys per 100 girls). For couples who have already had two daughters, the SRB for the third parity is 143.8 boys per 100 girls.

If the SRB declines rapidly and reaches a normal level by 2039, the male between the age of 15 and 49 excess will still be 1.5 million men in 2034 and 1.8 million in 2059.

Women make up a higher proportion than men in the migrant population, but this pattern is gradually changing towards equilibrium. The majority of migrants are young people aged 20-39 years old, accounting for 61.8 percent of the total migrant population.

Migrant children are more disadvantaged than non-migrant ones in accessing lower and upper secondary education.

According to the analysis of the 2019 Population and Housing Census, the current fertility of Vietnam is around the replacement fertility level and will contribute to the reduction of population growth rate in the future.

The annual population growth rate for the next 10 years is expected to be less than 1 percent. Given the current situation of low fertility, population structure and high sex ratio at birth, the future population structure will change towards aged population and shortages of men in certain age groups. This will have a dramatic impact on the workforce and contribute to emerging social issues.

The 2019 Vietnam Population and Housing Census was conducted on 1 April 2019, the fifth in Vietnam since the country’s reunification in 1975./.