Vietnam's GDP will increase 5.5-6% during 2022-2023: Experts

Economists forecast that Vietnam's GDP will increase from 5.5-6% in the 2022-2023 period and in the negative scenario, the figure will be only 4.5-5%.
Vietnam's GDP will increase 5.5-6% during 2022-2023: Experts ảnh 1Delegates at a conference “Vietnam’s economy forecast during 2022-2023: Growth scenario and prospects for key economic sectors” on May 12. (Photo: Vietnamplus)

Hanoi (VNA) - The COVID-19 pandemic has yet to end, tensions have increased in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and these factors will affect Vietnam’s economic growth rate as well as its economic sectors in 2022-2023.

Experts reckon that these issues have opened up huge opportunities but also created challenges for economic development of countries worldwide including Vietnam.

Thriving signs

In the beginning of 2022, in its Resolution No. 01, the Government set a socio-economic development target with a gross domestic product (GDP) of about 6-6.5%, and GDP per capita of about USD 3,900. The ratio of processing industry - manufacturing in GDP accounts for 25.5-25.8% and the average growth rate of consumer price index (CPI) of about 4%.

In addition, the Government has also set a target to boost production and business activities, promote growth drivers, and prioritize a number of important industries to achieve an average annual GDP growth of 6.5-7% for the period 2021-2025. They want an unemployment rate in urban areas of less than 4% while maintaining macroeconomic stability and ensuring large balances in medium and long terms.

At the forum "Vietnam Economic Forecast 2022-2023: Growth Scenarios and Prospects of Some Key Economic Sectors," organized by the Journal of Economics and Forecasting (Ministry of Planning and Investment) on May 12, Deputy Minister Tran Quoc Phuong said that after 4 months, despite many complicated developments, the overall domestic economy continued to recover and showed signs of growth in some sectors.

Specifically, GDP growth in the first quarter was estimated at 5.03% compared to the same period last year, while inflation was reasonable. The 4-month consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.1%, whereby the large financial, monetary, credit balances were guaranteed, and the state budget revenue achieved positive results.

The Deputy Minister emphasized that Vietnam's Business Environment Index reached 73 percentage points and increased 12 percentage points compared to 4th quarter of 2021, which was the highest level since the 4th outbreak of Covid-19.

On the other hand, the number of newly established enterprises in four months reached 49,591 enterprises, the highest level (in the same period) in Vietnam.

Another highlight was the inflow of foreign direct investment (in 4 months) which reached 5.92 billion USD. Phuong said that this was also the highest value (in the first 4 months of the year) in the years of 2018-2022, helping to create an important impetus for economic growth in 2022.

However, besides the optimistic signals, Deputy Minister Tran Quoc Phuong said that there are also many difficulties hindering economic recovery. Specifically, the challenge is growing as the COVID-19 pandemic lingers in the context of complicated scenarios in the international economic-political picture.

“Therefore, the forecast of macroeconomics as well as sectoral economic prospects should be updated based on scientific, in-depth and multidimensional analysis. These are very necessary efforts to contribute to policy making as well as the activities of investors, businesses, to realize the development goals of the country as set out in the Government's Resolutions,” Phuong said./.


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