The credit rating agency Moody's has predicted that ASEAN economieswill be affected considerably if China’s economic growth in 2014 and2015 drops below Moody's baseline projection of 6.5-7.5 percent.
Inits latest edition of “Inside ASEAN”, quarterly publication looking atmajor credit trends prevalent in the Southeast Asian region, Moody'ssaid ASEAN member nations are vulnerable to a pronounced growthcorrection in China, which is now the region's largest trading partner.
On aggregate, 12.2 percent of ASEAN's outbound shipments went to China in 2013, up from just 7.3 percent in the earlier decade.
According to Moody's report, among the members of ASEAN, Singaporeis likely to be the most affected by a sharp downturn in the Chineseeconomy.
The agency also suggested that Indonesia will likelysuffer from lower Chinese demand for raw materials. Malaysia and Vietnamwill also meet difficulties in shipping their goods to China, it added.
The report said the Philippines will be the least impactedamong ASEAN members, as the country’s reliance on export to China hasdeclined over the years. Moody's pointed out that the fallingcommodity prices caused by China's weakening demand will benefit thePhilippines, because it will help keep consumer prices from rising.
China’sdemand in the coming time is likely to drop as the countryundergoes processes of restructuring of its economy, tradeliberalisation and credit crunch, Moody’s said, noting that theprocesses can raise instability for the world’s second largest economy.-VNA
Inits latest edition of “Inside ASEAN”, quarterly publication looking atmajor credit trends prevalent in the Southeast Asian region, Moody'ssaid ASEAN member nations are vulnerable to a pronounced growthcorrection in China, which is now the region's largest trading partner.
On aggregate, 12.2 percent of ASEAN's outbound shipments went to China in 2013, up from just 7.3 percent in the earlier decade.
According to Moody's report, among the members of ASEAN, Singaporeis likely to be the most affected by a sharp downturn in the Chineseeconomy.
The agency also suggested that Indonesia will likelysuffer from lower Chinese demand for raw materials. Malaysia and Vietnamwill also meet difficulties in shipping their goods to China, it added.
The report said the Philippines will be the least impactedamong ASEAN members, as the country’s reliance on export to China hasdeclined over the years. Moody's pointed out that the fallingcommodity prices caused by China's weakening demand will benefit thePhilippines, because it will help keep consumer prices from rising.
China’sdemand in the coming time is likely to drop as the countryundergoes processes of restructuring of its economy, tradeliberalisation and credit crunch, Moody’s said, noting that theprocesses can raise instability for the world’s second largest economy.-VNA
