The credit rating agency Moody's has predicted that ASEAN economies will be affected considerably if China’s economic growth in 2014 and 2015 drops below Moody's baseline projection of 6.5-7.5 percent.
In its latest edition of “Inside ASEAN”, quarterly publication looking at major credit trends prevalent in the Southeast Asian region, Moody's said ASEAN member nations are vulnerable to a pronounced growth correction in China, which is now the region's largest trading partner.
On aggregate, 12.2 percent of ASEAN's outbound shipments went to China in 2013, up from just 7.3 percent in the earlier decade.
According to Moody's report, among the members of ASEAN, Singapore is likely to be the most affected by a sharp downturn in the Chinese economy.
The agency also suggested that Indonesia will likely suffer from lower Chinese demand for raw materials. Malaysia and Vietnam will also meet difficulties in shipping their goods to China, it added.
The report said the Philippines will be the least impacted among ASEAN members, as the country’s reliance on export to China has declined over the years. Moody's pointed out that the falling commodity prices caused by China's weakening demand will benefit the Philippines, because it will help keep consumer prices from rising.
China’s demand in the coming time is likely to drop as the country undergoes processes of restructuring of its economy, trade liberalisation and credit crunch, Moody’s said, noting that the processes can raise instability for the world’s second largest economy.-VNA
In its latest edition of “Inside ASEAN”, quarterly publication looking at major credit trends prevalent in the Southeast Asian region, Moody's said ASEAN member nations are vulnerable to a pronounced growth correction in China, which is now the region's largest trading partner.
On aggregate, 12.2 percent of ASEAN's outbound shipments went to China in 2013, up from just 7.3 percent in the earlier decade.
According to Moody's report, among the members of ASEAN, Singapore is likely to be the most affected by a sharp downturn in the Chinese economy.
The agency also suggested that Indonesia will likely suffer from lower Chinese demand for raw materials. Malaysia and Vietnam will also meet difficulties in shipping their goods to China, it added.
The report said the Philippines will be the least impacted among ASEAN members, as the country’s reliance on export to China has declined over the years. Moody's pointed out that the falling commodity prices caused by China's weakening demand will benefit the Philippines, because it will help keep consumer prices from rising.
China’s demand in the coming time is likely to drop as the country undergoes processes of restructuring of its economy, trade liberalisation and credit crunch, Moody’s said, noting that the processes can raise instability for the world’s second largest economy.-VNA
