A farmer harvests coffee (Photo: VNA) According to Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV), Robusta averaged 2,564 USD pertonne as of April 24 on ICE Futures Europe, which increased by nearly 40 comparedto the beginning of this year.
Starting from early 2023, the market saw signals about thenarrowing of supplies in major coffee-producing countries.
Statistics from the Vietnam General Department of Customs showed that Vietnam’scoffee export totalled more than 634,000 tonnes from the beginning of this yearto April 15, lower than the result of 663,816 tonnes of the same period lastyear.
The drop in export volume occurred in the context that global coffee priceswere at a high level, pushing up domestic prices to around 52,000 VND per kg, arecord high, according to giacaphe.com.
Besides, the coffee output of Indonesia, the world's third largest Robustaproducer, is forecast to be at around nine million tonnes, the lowest in thepast decade, according to Volcafe. The Brazil National Supply Company forecastRobusta output of this country would drop by nearly 4 compared to the 2022-23harvest to 17.51 million bags.
These figures show that there is not only a shortage of coffee in the short termbut also a narrowing in coffee supply in the medium and long term, which willlikely push up coffee prices.
Pham Quang Anh from MXV said that after a record coffee export year, Vietnam’s coffeeinventories were gradually shrinking. Along with that, the coffee output in2022 dropped sharply by 10-15 compared to the initial forecast due to heavyrain in the harvest period, which made the supply tight and price increaseinevitable.
Currently, domestic coffee prices were at a high level compared to recentyears, creating an opportunity for Việt Nam to maintain the export value ofmore than 4 billion USD in 2023.
Lower prices of Arabica than Robusta in the context of increasing concernsabout global economic recession risks was an important factor for Vietnam topromote the export of coffee.
It was an ideal condition for Vietnam to increase the export of Robusta andaffirm the position of being the world's largest Robusta supplier, Anh said.
Still, in the long term, Vietnam’s coffee industry should aim for moresustainable export.
While coffee export was narrowing down, farmers in Tay Nguyen (CentralHighlands) tended to cut down coffee trees to grow durian as China had allowedthe official import of durian from Vietnam.
Another problem was that Vietnam mainly exported coffee in raw forms, whichmust be tackled to increase added value.
He urged enterprises to invest in production and processing to increase addedvalue and develop brands for coffee products to meet the tastes of consumers indifferent markets./.
VNA
