Experts have outlined a number of different consumer price index (CPI) scenarios for this year. (Photo vneconomy.vn) Hanoi (VNA) - The target of keeping the country's inflation below 4 percent isfeasible, experts said at a recent seminar held in Hanoi by the Institute ofEconomics and Finance (IEF) under the Academy of Finance.
Someeven forecast CPI growth might be below 3 percent.
NguyenDuc Do, Deputy Director of the IEF, mentionedthe three inflation scenarios outlines since early this year, which will standat 2.5 percent, 3 percent and 3.54 percent.
“Afterthe General Statistics Office announced the average inflation rate for thefirst six months of this year at 2.64 percent, there is a high possibility thatinflation this year follows the low scenario,” Do said.
IEF Director NguyenBa Minh predicted that CPIthis year would climb by 3.0 to 3.5 percent.
Inthe second half of the year, a series of factors would be the key drivers ofCPI such as rising food prices, especially pork, due to the impact of Africanswine fever, Minh said.
“Itis likely that the State will continue to increase tuition fees and healthcareservice prices along with the set roadmap. The monthly basic salary for civilservants and public employees will also be raised to 1.49 million VND. Thesewill be the factors putting pressure on the CPI at the end of this year,” Minhsaid.
However,there are also some factors that will curb CPI growth such as the predictedworld economic downturn, which would stop the price of raw materialsrecovering, as well as the Government’s drastic measures to stabilise pricesand monetary policies.
Representativesfrom the Finance Ministry’s Price Management Department were of the view thatCPI growth would be somewhere between 3.3 to 3.9 percent this year.
Theministry will continue keeping a close watch on the supply-demand situation totake suitable solutions to stabilise the market, especially in terms ofessential goods like pork, construction materials and petrol.
Whilethe fiscal policy must be governed in a strict manner, the monetary policyneeded to be flexible and coordinated with other macro-economic policies tokeep inflation within the ceiling limit, experts said.-VNA
