The Bank of Thailand forcasts the country's GDP will grow 3.2-3.8% next year. (Photo: Bangkokpost) Bangkok (VNA) - Although the Bank ofThailand (BoT)'s revised GDP growth forecast of 3.2-3.8% next year is possible,analysts are warning that an economic slowdown in China and the US means downsiderisks remain, while the effectiveness of the government’s stimulus to ignitethe economy is questioned, local media reported.
The central bank's forecast for 2024 is in line withthe think tank's estimate, with its official forecast scheduled for release onDecember 12, the Bangkok Post cited Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, deputy managing director of Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research), as saying.
K-Research cut Thailand's 2023 growth outlook to2.5%, from 3%, late last month as GDP expanded by only 1.5% in the thirdquarter, bringing expansion to 1.9% for the first nine months.
While private consumption continues to expand in the fourthquarter as the tourism recovery gains ground during the high season, publicspending and investment would put pressure on the growth looking forward as the government’s fiscal budget hasbeen delayed.
Nattaporn stressed that the growth range of 3.2-3.8% is possible for the nextyear when the government’s digital wallet initiative is launched to drive theconsumption, but uncertainties still linger about this project.
She said that an economic slowdown in China and the US would certainly poserisks to the Thai economy, which is highly related to the two markets.
The Bank of Thailand believes that goods exportsand tourism have recovered more slowly than expected due to subdued growth inChina and a delayed upturn in global electronics demand. Total foreign arrivalsare targeted to climb from 28.3 million this year to 34.5 million in 2024,which is still below the pre-pandemic level of 40 million in 2019.
Meanwhile, the projected growth boost from thedigital wallet scheme implicitly assumes a very low fiscal multiplier, roughlybelow 0.3x if 500 billion THB (14.2 billion USD) was disbursed for this project./.
The central bank's forecast for 2024 is in line withthe think tank's estimate, with its official forecast scheduled for release onDecember 12, the Bangkok Post cited Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, deputy managing director of Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research), as saying.
K-Research cut Thailand's 2023 growth outlook to2.5%, from 3%, late last month as GDP expanded by only 1.5% in the thirdquarter, bringing expansion to 1.9% for the first nine months.
While private consumption continues to expand in the fourthquarter as the tourism recovery gains ground during the high season, publicspending and investment would put pressure on the growth looking forward as the government’s fiscal budget hasbeen delayed.
Nattaporn stressed that the growth range of 3.2-3.8% is possible for the nextyear when the government’s digital wallet initiative is launched to drive theconsumption, but uncertainties still linger about this project.
She said that an economic slowdown in China and the US would certainly poserisks to the Thai economy, which is highly related to the two markets.
The Bank of Thailand believes that goods exportsand tourism have recovered more slowly than expected due to subdued growth inChina and a delayed upturn in global electronics demand. Total foreign arrivalsare targeted to climb from 28.3 million this year to 34.5 million in 2024,which is still below the pre-pandemic level of 40 million in 2019.
Meanwhile, the projected growth boost from thedigital wallet scheme implicitly assumes a very low fiscal multiplier, roughlybelow 0.3x if 500 billion THB (14.2 billion USD) was disbursed for this project./.
VNA
