Price management and inflation control would be more complex and difficult this year (Photo: VNA) Hanoi (VNA) - Managing prices and inflationwould be more complex and difficult this year, experts have said.
The fluctuating price of pork last year hadsignificant impacts on the market, as the price plummeted in the first half ofthe year then soared in the second half.
The pork price dropped from 46,000-50,000 VND(2-2.2 USD) per kilogramme to a record low of 28,000 - 32,000 VND (1.21-1.38VND) per kilogramme in the first six months of last year.
After that, the price increased graduallyfrom July and soared from October with an increase of about 60 – 80percent compared to September and 60 – 95 percent compared to the beginning oflast year.
Prices of pork products are currently veryhigh with the live pig price ranging between 80,000 - 90,000 VND per kilogrammeand pork at 160,000 - 180,000 VND per kilogramme.
After the shock of the pork price increasing bymore than 50 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, curbing inflationbelow 4 percent this year was no longer certain when the consumer price index(CPI) of last December increased by 5.23 percent year-on-year, the highestlevel in the last nine years, Nguyen Duc Do, deputy director of the Instituteof Economics - Finance, told Kinh te & Do thi (Economic and UrbanAffairs).
The expert said if pork prices fell sharplyaround Tet (Lunar New Year), average inflation might be only at 3percent this year.
However, if pork prices remained at theircurrent high levels in the first quarter, average inflation could be about 3.5percent.
In a worst-case scenario where African swinefever doesn't end in the first half of this year and inflation over thesame period last year only starts to decline from the middle of this year,keeping inflation below 4 percent would be relatively difficult, he said.
Assuming other factors affecting inflation suchas oil prices, exchange rates, medical services and education did not changesignificantly, Do predicted that inflation would increase by 3.5 percent onaverage this year.
As the price of some commodities such as petrolmight rise due to world economic and political instability, experts saidinflation would be complicated and unpredictable.
A representative from the Ministry ofFinance's Price Management Department stated that the price of some items mightsee an upward trend.
Specifically, gasoline prices might increaseslightly. The price of pork, due to the impact of African swine fever, wasstill a complex matter. The domestic pork supply is declining, and breeding hasnot been effective, therefore, the price was expected to continue to increasein the first months of this year, the representative said.
At the same time, health service prices wereexpected to be affected by the adjustment of management cost and basic salary.
The price in education services also looks setto continue to increase this year.
Regarding electricity prices, although is noplan for an increase this year, the demand for electricity was still high forproduction and consumption, which would increase CPI.
In addition, the prices of food, beverages andgarments might increase at the beginning and end of the year due to shoppingneeds during the holidays.
To achieve the National Assembly's goal ofkeeping inflation under 4 percent this year, the department said pricemanagement and inflation control this year must be implemented prudently,flexibly and proactively.
The Ministry of Finance would continue to workwith relevant agencies to control market prices, especiallyduring Tet and the first months of the year./.
The fluctuating price of pork last year hadsignificant impacts on the market, as the price plummeted in the first half ofthe year then soared in the second half.
The pork price dropped from 46,000-50,000 VND(2-2.2 USD) per kilogramme to a record low of 28,000 - 32,000 VND (1.21-1.38VND) per kilogramme in the first six months of last year.
After that, the price increased graduallyfrom July and soared from October with an increase of about 60 – 80percent compared to September and 60 – 95 percent compared to the beginning oflast year.
Prices of pork products are currently veryhigh with the live pig price ranging between 80,000 - 90,000 VND per kilogrammeand pork at 160,000 - 180,000 VND per kilogramme.
After the shock of the pork price increasing bymore than 50 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, curbing inflationbelow 4 percent this year was no longer certain when the consumer price index(CPI) of last December increased by 5.23 percent year-on-year, the highestlevel in the last nine years, Nguyen Duc Do, deputy director of the Instituteof Economics - Finance, told Kinh te & Do thi (Economic and UrbanAffairs).
The expert said if pork prices fell sharplyaround Tet (Lunar New Year), average inflation might be only at 3percent this year.
However, if pork prices remained at theircurrent high levels in the first quarter, average inflation could be about 3.5percent.
In a worst-case scenario where African swinefever doesn't end in the first half of this year and inflation over thesame period last year only starts to decline from the middle of this year,keeping inflation below 4 percent would be relatively difficult, he said.
Assuming other factors affecting inflation suchas oil prices, exchange rates, medical services and education did not changesignificantly, Do predicted that inflation would increase by 3.5 percent onaverage this year.
As the price of some commodities such as petrolmight rise due to world economic and political instability, experts saidinflation would be complicated and unpredictable.
A representative from the Ministry ofFinance's Price Management Department stated that the price of some items mightsee an upward trend.
Specifically, gasoline prices might increaseslightly. The price of pork, due to the impact of African swine fever, wasstill a complex matter. The domestic pork supply is declining, and breeding hasnot been effective, therefore, the price was expected to continue to increasein the first months of this year, the representative said.
At the same time, health service prices wereexpected to be affected by the adjustment of management cost and basic salary.
The price in education services also looks setto continue to increase this year.
Regarding electricity prices, although is noplan for an increase this year, the demand for electricity was still high forproduction and consumption, which would increase CPI.
In addition, the prices of food, beverages andgarments might increase at the beginning and end of the year due to shoppingneeds during the holidays.
To achieve the National Assembly's goal ofkeeping inflation under 4 percent this year, the department said pricemanagement and inflation control this year must be implemented prudently,flexibly and proactively.
The Ministry of Finance would continue to workwith relevant agencies to control market prices, especiallyduring Tet and the first months of the year./.
VNA
