Vietnam’s GDP growth in the first quarter was already the slowest for a decade, at 3.82 percent (Photo: VNA) Hanoi (VNA) - Vietnam’seconomic growth in the second quarter is almost certain to be down against the firstquarter as the COVID-19 pandemic impacts the world, experts have said.
The Ministry of Planning and Investmentsaid the pandemic is developing in an unpredictable manner, making it difficultto determine when its peak and end will occur.
The ministry noted the outbreakhas seriously affected all elements of socio-economic development. Businesses arenow facing the risk of material shortages and may be forced to suspend operations,while inflationary pressure is mounting and rising unemployment may impact on socialsecurity.
Vietnam’s GDP growth in the firstquarter was already the slowest for a decade, at 3.82 percent, according to theGeneral Statistics Office.
Experts from the Hanoi-based NationalEconomics University (NEU) recently forecast year-on-year growth in Q2 of around2 percent or even lower if the pandemic worsens.
Exports may decline by some 25percent in the quarter and 15 percent in subsequent quarters, they added, with economicrecovery expected to begin in Q3 at the earliest.
The NEU experts also noted thatthese figures are only rough estimates at this stage.
They believe Vietnam’s economymay encounter even more difficulties in the months to come, throwing into questiondomestic businesses’ capacity to absorb the credit package of 285 trillion VND (12.16billion USD) and the influence of a downturn in global trade and production on householdconsumption and enterprise investment.
They also pointed to a downwardtrend in FDI inflows, as COVID-19 has made many foreign enterprises reluctant toraise investment capital. Low credit demand, meanwhile, is projected to remain throughoutQ2.
Economic expert Nguyen Tri Hieusaid that, unlike in Q1, the entire economy will be affected by the pandemic inQ2. Both supply and demand in all sectors, from tourism, aviation, and consumptionto exports and imports will be strongly impacted.
“As we have just entered Q2,however, and the pandemic remains unpredictable, it’s still too early to forecastquarterly GDP,” he said./.
VNA
