Somkiat Tangkitvanich, TDRI's president, says the economic crisis triggered by the coronavirus outbreak is expected to be bigger than the 2008 global financial crisis. (Source: bangkokpost.com ) Bangkok (VNA) - The Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) hasforecast that Thailand is likely to take up to three years to return to normaleconomic conditions similar to 2019.
Speaking at a seminar titled "New Normal for Business Sector" held bythe Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC), Somkiat Tangkitvanich, TDRI's president,said this economic crisis triggered by the coronavirus outbreak is expected tobe bigger than the 2008 global financial crisis.
He said TDRI expects it will take a year to 18 months to make and distribute avaccine, and up to three years for the Thai economy to return to 2019 levels.
According to Somkiat, Thailand is in a transitional period,with lockdown measures starting to ease and many businesses allowed to reopen. However,he insisted tight control measures are still needed to curb a second wave ofthe outbreak. The business sector needs to come up with new business practicesto adapt to a changing business environment.
Despite massive fiscal stimulus packages and monetary easing,CIMB Thai Bank (CIMBT) predicted the Thai economy could continue fallingsharply this quarter, with GDP contraction possibly below the 12.5 percent seenin the second quarter of 1998.
Thailand’sfull-year GDP growth contracted by 7.6 percent 22 years ago when the economyreeled from the Asian financial crisis in 1997.
"Weproject a sharp fall of GDP in the second quarter by 14 percent from theprevious year," said Amonthep Chawla, head of research at CIMBT.
Amonthep said exports could continue to plungefrom weak global demand and continual lockdowns in major economies. The numberof tourist arrivals in the second quarter should drop sharply from travelrestrictions.
The private sector will likely remain weak for both consumption and investment,following a decline in both farm and non-farm income and a lack confidenceamong consumers and investors, he said.
Thailand's economy contracted by 1.8 percent year-on-year and 2.2percent quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis for the firstquarter, mainly attributed to the COVID-19 outbreak affecting the lucrativetourism industry, external demand and domestic private consumption.
Theeconomy could shrink by about 10 percent year-on-year in the second half, butquarterly growth could recover, he said./.
VNA
