Illustrative image (Photo: Xinhua/VNA) Bangkok (VNA) – Thailand's economicrecovery is expected to take longer than previously anticipated, mainly due tothe drastic decline in foreign tourist numbers, says the Bank of Thailand (BoT).
The central bank slashed its GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 5percent to 3.6 percent as the pandemic continues to hamper internationaltravel.
The central bank has revised down its foreign arrivals forecast for next yearfrom the previous 16.2 million to 9 million, said Titanun Mallikamas, secretaryof the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
The outbreak situation and the offshore impact have been more severe thanexpected. Several countries have been facing higher infection cases, second-waveoutbreaks and longer lockdown policies, he said. These factors will incur animpact on foreign travellers with plans to visit Thailand.
"With this scenario [the slow recovery of foreign tourist figures],overall economic activity will take at least two years to return topre-pandemic levels," he said.
The central bank earlier warned that Thailand's tourism industry would facegreater risks next year if the government continued to restrict foreigntravellers from entering the country. In the January-July period, the number offoreign tourists was 6.69 million, down 71 percent year-on-year, with spendingdown 70.4 percent from a year earlier to 332 billion THB.
Thailand, which had a record 39.8 million tourist arrivals last year, hasrecorded zero foreign visitors since April, when a travel ban was imposed bythe government.
The central bank has also lowered all economic projections for next year. Privateconsumption is anticipated to dip from 2.5 percent growth to 2 percent, whilegrowth in private and public investment has been revised from 5.6 percent to4.2 percent and from 14.1 percent to 11.4 percent, respectively.
Merchandise exports are projected to expand by 4.3 percent, down from 8.4percent, and imports are poised for 4.4 percent growth, down from 7.3 percent.
Thailand's economic outlook for 2020, however, has been revised up slightly bythe central bank. The economy is expected to shrink by 7.6 percent, narrowingfrom the 8.1 percent seen previously, after the second-quarter GDP contractionwas less than forecast.
GDP fell 12.2 percent from a year earlier in the second quarter,the biggest decline since the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s.First-quarter GDP saw a 2.5 percent year-on-year decline as COVID-19 started totake its toll on global business activity.
In other news, the MPC on September 24 voted unanimously to maintain thepolicy rate unchanged at 0.5 percent. The committee said the extraaccommodative monetary policy, as well as additional fiscal, financial andcredit measures, will help alleviate adverse impacts and lend support to theeconomic recovery./.
VNA
