Standard Chartered Bank recently released a report called Global Research 2015 – The Year Ahead, Rekindling the Animal Spirit, which also takes a look at Vietnam's economic and financial outlook, growth, FDI prospects, trade and interest rate. Viet Nam News spoke with the bank's economist, Betty Rui Wang, about these issues.
Q: How do you see the prospects for the Vietnamese economy in 2015?
A: This year we expect Vietnam's GDP growth to accelerate to 6 percent, slightly higher than our previous forecast of 5.8 percent for 2014. Foreign direct investment and exports are likely to increase as well. We also expect some progress to be made on structural reforms in 2015, the final year of the country's five-year socio-economic development plan.
We expect FDI to gather pace this year given the country's rising profile in the global value chain. It has become a leading attractive destination as investment costs in China have become higher and thus less attractive for investors. Multinational companies have expressed a keen interest in increasing investment in Vietnam thanks to the country's geographic advantage, low labour and operating costs and its participation in regional trade pacts.
Exports are expected to recover. Traditional exports like textiles and footwear performed well last year, reflecting Vietnam's established competitiveness in these sectors. We expect traditional exports to remain robust, especially given the country's involvement in the multilateral Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. The TPP should draw increased FDI, though negotiations are likely to take time to finalise and restrictions may be placed on the trade benefits to Vietnam under the pact. Export of electronics, now the country's biggest export item, will accelerate as FDI increases and more production lines start operation. Growth in electronics slowed last year, partly as an unfavourable base effect and weaker-than-expected global demand affected performance. Vietnam has been proactive in strengthening bilateral trade relations with neighbours other than China, which bodes well for the export outlook.
Inflation is unlikely to be a concern this year. Headline inflation fell to below 3 percent last November and core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, has been below 4 percent since September. This trend is expected to continue this year so we revise down our forecast to 3.4 percent year-on-year from 4.7 percent.
We hope the State Bank of Vietnam remains accommodative as low inflation gives room for policy manoeuvre. A 50bps (basis points) rate cut will take the policy rate to 6 percent this year.
Fiscal policy is also likely to be accommodative as the authorities' focus remains on promoting growth. We see that fiscal policy will remain supportive, especially of targeted sectors including agriculture and SMEs.
Q: How do you think Vietnam's structural reforms are going?
A: Progress is expected in structural reforms. The Vietnam Asset Management company is said to plan to adopt a new method for calculating the value of bad debts, stepping up its efforts to regulate debt pricing in the medium to long term. Stricter debt classification and provisions will be implemented beginning this year, after a year of delay. These measures will be positive steps towards the necessary regulation of the banking sector to rein in non-performing loans. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung has said that Vietnam aims to bring down the ratio of bad debts to bank loans to 3 percent by this year's end from the current 4.17 percent.
We also expect the government speed up SOE reform. Progress was moderate last year. The Ministry of Finance had originally planned to equitise around 200 SOEs in 2014, but only 75 were equitised as of the first 10 months.
However, SOE equitisation is a positive step, we have to acknowledge. That is the way to help improve SOEs' efficiency. Low efficiency is one of the major issues for Vietnam's SOEs because it is sitting on a lot of resources but performing poorly. I think privatisation is definitely a positive step taken by the Government in terms of reforming SOEs. But at the same time, there are still a lot of other issues, which the Government also needs to address going forward. If it can continue with the commitment and implement it alongside the equitisation process, that would be positive for the whole economy in the longer run.
Q: How do you expect the interest rate trend to be this year?
A: There will be one more rate cut to come this year, probably of 50 basis points. That will bring the key policy rate from 6.5 percent to 6 percent. Why do we think the SBV should cut further? First, I think policy rate is an important policy tool to help the economy. Second, if you look at the current inflation trend, partly thanks to low global oil prices, Vietnam's headline inflation has dipped below 1 percent in January, which hasn't been seen for a decade. That actually increases the real interest rate. So it will provide room for the central bank to cut further. I do notice that the central bank also said that they are going to adjust the lending rate or urge commercial banks to reduce the lending rate. I think that is a positive intention because, if we look at credit growth, there is still room for it to grow further. Of course, demand on the ground is a very important factor affecting the credit growth. But on the other hand, we think there is still room for the central bank to manipulate the policy rate in terms of boosting credit growth and business activities.-VNA
Q: How do you see the prospects for the Vietnamese economy in 2015?
A: This year we expect Vietnam's GDP growth to accelerate to 6 percent, slightly higher than our previous forecast of 5.8 percent for 2014. Foreign direct investment and exports are likely to increase as well. We also expect some progress to be made on structural reforms in 2015, the final year of the country's five-year socio-economic development plan.
We expect FDI to gather pace this year given the country's rising profile in the global value chain. It has become a leading attractive destination as investment costs in China have become higher and thus less attractive for investors. Multinational companies have expressed a keen interest in increasing investment in Vietnam thanks to the country's geographic advantage, low labour and operating costs and its participation in regional trade pacts.
Exports are expected to recover. Traditional exports like textiles and footwear performed well last year, reflecting Vietnam's established competitiveness in these sectors. We expect traditional exports to remain robust, especially given the country's involvement in the multilateral Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. The TPP should draw increased FDI, though negotiations are likely to take time to finalise and restrictions may be placed on the trade benefits to Vietnam under the pact. Export of electronics, now the country's biggest export item, will accelerate as FDI increases and more production lines start operation. Growth in electronics slowed last year, partly as an unfavourable base effect and weaker-than-expected global demand affected performance. Vietnam has been proactive in strengthening bilateral trade relations with neighbours other than China, which bodes well for the export outlook.
Inflation is unlikely to be a concern this year. Headline inflation fell to below 3 percent last November and core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, has been below 4 percent since September. This trend is expected to continue this year so we revise down our forecast to 3.4 percent year-on-year from 4.7 percent.
We hope the State Bank of Vietnam remains accommodative as low inflation gives room for policy manoeuvre. A 50bps (basis points) rate cut will take the policy rate to 6 percent this year.
Fiscal policy is also likely to be accommodative as the authorities' focus remains on promoting growth. We see that fiscal policy will remain supportive, especially of targeted sectors including agriculture and SMEs.
Q: How do you think Vietnam's structural reforms are going?
A: Progress is expected in structural reforms. The Vietnam Asset Management company is said to plan to adopt a new method for calculating the value of bad debts, stepping up its efforts to regulate debt pricing in the medium to long term. Stricter debt classification and provisions will be implemented beginning this year, after a year of delay. These measures will be positive steps towards the necessary regulation of the banking sector to rein in non-performing loans. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung has said that Vietnam aims to bring down the ratio of bad debts to bank loans to 3 percent by this year's end from the current 4.17 percent.
We also expect the government speed up SOE reform. Progress was moderate last year. The Ministry of Finance had originally planned to equitise around 200 SOEs in 2014, but only 75 were equitised as of the first 10 months.
However, SOE equitisation is a positive step, we have to acknowledge. That is the way to help improve SOEs' efficiency. Low efficiency is one of the major issues for Vietnam's SOEs because it is sitting on a lot of resources but performing poorly. I think privatisation is definitely a positive step taken by the Government in terms of reforming SOEs. But at the same time, there are still a lot of other issues, which the Government also needs to address going forward. If it can continue with the commitment and implement it alongside the equitisation process, that would be positive for the whole economy in the longer run.
Q: How do you expect the interest rate trend to be this year?
A: There will be one more rate cut to come this year, probably of 50 basis points. That will bring the key policy rate from 6.5 percent to 6 percent. Why do we think the SBV should cut further? First, I think policy rate is an important policy tool to help the economy. Second, if you look at the current inflation trend, partly thanks to low global oil prices, Vietnam's headline inflation has dipped below 1 percent in January, which hasn't been seen for a decade. That actually increases the real interest rate. So it will provide room for the central bank to cut further. I do notice that the central bank also said that they are going to adjust the lending rate or urge commercial banks to reduce the lending rate. I think that is a positive intention because, if we look at credit growth, there is still room for it to grow further. Of course, demand on the ground is a very important factor affecting the credit growth. But on the other hand, we think there is still room for the central bank to manipulate the policy rate in terms of boosting credit growth and business activities.-VNA
