Illustrative image (Photo: VNA) Estimations from the Research Division of Saigon Securities Incorporation (SSI)suggest that during the third quarter of 2023, banks such as Sacombank,VietinBank, Vietcombank, MB and ACB are likely to witness a double-digit risein profits compared to the same period in the previous year.
Sacombank is predicted to top the profit growth across the banking sector forthe third quarter of 2023, boasting a pre-tax profit of 2.4-2.5 trillion VND,marking an elevation of 57-63% from the same period last year.
SSI's analysts expect Sacombank's credit growth to reach 8.5%, net interestmargin (NIM) to be flat compared to the previous quarter, while the bad debtratio will be about 2%.
Meanwhile, ACB is expected to see a pre-tax profit of about 4.8-5 trillion VND inQ3 2023, up 7-12% over the same period last year. Credit growth is forecast tobe about 8.5% compared to the beginning of the year.
The analysts believe that the difference between deposit and lending interestrates will cause ACB’s NIM to narrow in the third quarter. The bank’s bad debtratio is expected to fluctuate around 1.1%.
Regarding the whole year's outlook, SSI expects ACB to reach 20 trillion VND inpre-tax profit for the year, corresponding to a growth rate of 17% over thesame period last year.
According to the analysts, as provision costs have decreased from a recordhigh, VietinBank's pre-tax profit will increase by 20-22% in Q3 2023. In thesame period last year, the bank reported a record high risk provision of 8.3trillion VND, causing pre-tax profit to reach only 4.1 trillion VND.
VietinBank's credit growth at the end of September 2023 is estimated to beabout 11-12% over the same period last year and its NIM is going down.
As for MB, SSI’s analysts believe that strong credit growth of about 14%compared to the beginning of the year, a stable NIM and slight improvement inasset quality are the main drivers that will help MB’s Q3 2023 profits reachabout 7.3-7.5 trillion VND, an increase of 16-19% over the same period lastyear.
Vietcombank is forecast to continue to have a positive business quarter whenits pre-tax profit grew by 18% over the same period last year to 9 trillion VND.Compared to the previous quarter, Vietcombank's profit may decrease by 4%.
SSI’s analysts assess Vietcombank's credit growth to be slower than otherbanks, at only 3.6% by the end of September 2023. SSI Research believes thatthe main growth driver for the bank still comes from corporate customers.
However, Vietcombank will encounter some challenges such as the bank’s NIMshrinking due to a deposit increase of 8.3% compared to the beginning of theyear while it continues to support customers.
Vietcombank's asset quality is expected to decrease slightly, along with anincrease in bad debt.
Meanwhile, some other banks, such as VIB, Techcombank, BIDV, MSB, VPBank andTPBank may see Q3 2023 profits decrease over the same period last year. Inparticular, the profits of VPBank and TPBank are forecast to decrease by morethan 20% due to asset quality issues and slow recovery of NIM.
Pressure on declining NIM and asset quality continued in Q3 2023 affectingVPBank’s prospects. The analysts believe that VPBank's pre-tax profit willreach 3.3 trillion VND in Q3 2023, down 27% over the same period last year,despite its credit growth of 18-20% compared to the beginning of this year.
Although VPBank's Q3 2023 profit recorded a decline, SSI assessed that a brightspot in the bank’s Q3 2023 business picture was positive results from itssubsidiary FE Credit. According to VPBank’s deputy general director Pham ThiNhung, the bank's credit growth has so far exceeded 20%, higher than theaverage increasing rate of the entire banking industry.
Meanwhile, the decrease in profits of TPBank in Q3 2023 was mainly due to thehigh base level of last year. Specifically, the bank’s pre-tax profit isexpected to reach about 1.45-1.60 trillion VND, down 25-32% over the sameperiod last year.
TPBank’s NIM decline and the burden of provisioning are said to be the reasonswhy the bank’s pre-tax profit declined in Q3 2023. The bank’s credit growth isabout 7.5% compared to the beginning of this year while its deposit growth isexpected to be 5% compared to the beginning of this year./.
VNA
