A corner of Ho Chi Minh City - the southern hub of Vietnam (Photo: VNA) Hanoi (VNA) – If breakthroughs in institutional reforms are achievedto improve growth quality, coupling with timely and sound fiscal and monetarypolicies, the Vietnamese economy could expand 6.76 percent a year during2021-2023, according to Director of the Central Institute for EconomicManagement (CIEM) Tran Thi Hong Minh.
Minh presented the forecast while speaking at the workshop “Making EconomicRecovery and Institutional Reforms Intertwined After COVID-19 – Way Forward forVietnam” recently held by CIEM with the support from Aus4Reform and theAustralian Embassy to Vietnam.
According to the scholar, thanks to good control of the COVID-19 pandemic,Vietnam has seen good recovery in its socio-economic activities.
Right in the time of the pandemic, the Southeast Asian country witnessed greatstrides in international integration such as ratification and implementation ofthe EU – Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), EU – Vietnam InvestmentProtection Agreement (EVIPA), UK – Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), andthe Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
Although Vietnam is one of the very few countries successfully containingCOVID-19, creating a basis to recover and promote domestic production, as wellas reopen the economy safely, Vietnam needs to adopt a long-term plan for post-pandemiceconomic recovery, Minh added.
CIEM has outlined three scenarios for economic growth, based on Vietnam'smanagement of the pandemic this year. Under the first scenario, CIEM forecaststhat the Vietnamese economy will grow at an average 6.35 percent a year in thenext three years.
Under the second scenario, with fiscal and monetary policy easing, the averagegrowth could reach 6.7 percent.
Under the third scenario, with fiscal and monetary easing along withinstitutional reform, the economy could expand 6.76 percent.
Regarding the reform process for Vietnam, Nguyen Anh Duong from CIEM said that itshould continue its COVID-19 preventionwork and its efforts to remove bottlenecks facing the business community andworkers and promote economic institutional reform this year.
In 2022, it is necessary for the country to carry out economic recoverymeasures in tandem with economic institutional reform. Meanwhile, solutions tosupport economic recovery should be withdrawn, and focus should be sharpened oneconomic institutional reform, Duong added.
Vietnam can achieve better economic growth if it loosens monetary and fiscalpolicies, but it could suffer from higher inflationary pressure, he pointedout.
Loose monetary and fiscal policies could result in higher economic growth andimprovements in productivity if combined with institutional reform, he added./.
VNA
