According to the report on the national economy in 2013 and outlookfor 2014 – 2015 made by the National Financial Supervisory Commission(NFSC), in 2014, the global and Vietnamese economy is expected toachieve stronger growth than in 2013. Vietnamese enterprises should usethis forecast to map out strategies for long-term development. Report bythe Vietnam Business Forum.
* Regaining growth momentum
According to the report, the world economy in 2013 still faces manydifficulties and a slower-than-expected recovery, echoing the sluggishgrowth of the two powers, China and Japan.
However, theglobal economy also has seen some positive signs. Japan’s economy hasenjoyed a stable growth since the third quarter of 2012 while Europehas finally come out of the longest recession ever in history,experiencing growth for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2011.The U.S. economy has also maintained a growth of around two percentsince the first quarter of 2010 while keeping the inflation at twopercent in July 2013, paving the way for FED’s plan to cut down thequantitative easing (QE) in the fourth quarter of 2013 and stop it inthe second quarter of 2014.
Based on these facts, the NFSCbelieves that in 2014, the world will see stronger growth, in bothdeveloped and developing countries. The EU will emerge from the crisiswith growth of 0.9 percent, while forecast for the U.S. and Japanare 2.7 percent 1.2 percent respectively.
Regarding theVietnam's economy in the time ahead, the NFSC said that inflationwould continue to be kept down at a comparatively low level. If thereare no changes in the prices of basic commodities (oil, electricity,public services), it’s likely that 2013’s inflation would be about fivepercent (higher than the 4.3 percent of 2012). Thus, the priceadjustment in these last months will be of critical importance.
Also according to the NFSC, the target of 5.5 percent growth for 2013remains challenging, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth maystay at 5,3 percent only. However, during the period of 2014 - 2015, theVietnam's economy is expected to improve with GDP increasing by 5.6- 5.8 percent, 6 percent in 2014 and 6.2 percent in 2015.
Toachieve its objectives, the NFSC emphasized that the short-term policy(from now until the end of 2014) should continue to boost aggregatedemand to help businesses expanding production. The medium-term policyshould be directed to improve supply and demand in the economy.Therefore, accelerating economic restructuring plays an important roleand need to be focus on in the next 2-3 years to provide a turningpoint.
* Staying ahead of the growth trend
Whentrouble is over and the recovery plan has yielded result, Vietnam ’seconomy will have a strong basis to speed up its development. Accordingto experts, businesses should be more flexible in approaching market sothat they could achieve the best results. As a part of this strategy,businesses should re-evaluate their capabilities in key issues such as:the efficiency of human capital expending, the marketable level ofproducts, and then design a good strategy based on these evaluation.It’s also important to remember that with a development strategy, thesimpler the better, so that businesses could maximize operation andfocus on core business areas.
Currently, Vietnam 's economyis still in the development stage, the enterprises face difficulties infinding raw materials and ancillary materials. Many manufacturingenterprises said that most of them have to import raw materials whileancillary materials is scattered, which made the production costly,time-consuming and presenting a disadvantage compared with foreigncompanies, especially Chinese businesses who have a specific zone toprovide ancillary materials.
These difficulties havediscouraged many investors, instead of increasing investment they havegone to build their own business so that they can calculate morecarefully the cost and make use of private capital. These newenterprises are also more careful in doing business. However, therestill have been many businesses who have foreseen new opportunities andtherefore actively expanded investment, believing that the market in2013 will get stronger supported by the stimulus plan of the government.
However, the survey ‘outlook for macro-economy and enterpriserestructuring from the perspective of the best Vietnamese businesses2013’ conducted by Vietnam Report also shows that besides the businesseswho stay positive about the future, 46 percent of enterprises who wereasked believed that the economy cannot recover in this year. Theenterprises who believed that the macro-economy will strengthen in thesecond half of 2013 also are less than those who think otherwise.
The prospect of the economy on the way to recovery is reasonable.However, whether the situation can become a springboard for businessesto reach for sustainable development or not is still a question toanswer.-VNA
* Regaining growth momentum
According to the report, the world economy in 2013 still faces manydifficulties and a slower-than-expected recovery, echoing the sluggishgrowth of the two powers, China and Japan.
However, theglobal economy also has seen some positive signs. Japan’s economy hasenjoyed a stable growth since the third quarter of 2012 while Europehas finally come out of the longest recession ever in history,experiencing growth for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2011.The U.S. economy has also maintained a growth of around two percentsince the first quarter of 2010 while keeping the inflation at twopercent in July 2013, paving the way for FED’s plan to cut down thequantitative easing (QE) in the fourth quarter of 2013 and stop it inthe second quarter of 2014.
Based on these facts, the NFSCbelieves that in 2014, the world will see stronger growth, in bothdeveloped and developing countries. The EU will emerge from the crisiswith growth of 0.9 percent, while forecast for the U.S. and Japanare 2.7 percent 1.2 percent respectively.
Regarding theVietnam's economy in the time ahead, the NFSC said that inflationwould continue to be kept down at a comparatively low level. If thereare no changes in the prices of basic commodities (oil, electricity,public services), it’s likely that 2013’s inflation would be about fivepercent (higher than the 4.3 percent of 2012). Thus, the priceadjustment in these last months will be of critical importance.
Also according to the NFSC, the target of 5.5 percent growth for 2013remains challenging, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth maystay at 5,3 percent only. However, during the period of 2014 - 2015, theVietnam's economy is expected to improve with GDP increasing by 5.6- 5.8 percent, 6 percent in 2014 and 6.2 percent in 2015.
Toachieve its objectives, the NFSC emphasized that the short-term policy(from now until the end of 2014) should continue to boost aggregatedemand to help businesses expanding production. The medium-term policyshould be directed to improve supply and demand in the economy.Therefore, accelerating economic restructuring plays an important roleand need to be focus on in the next 2-3 years to provide a turningpoint.
* Staying ahead of the growth trend
Whentrouble is over and the recovery plan has yielded result, Vietnam ’seconomy will have a strong basis to speed up its development. Accordingto experts, businesses should be more flexible in approaching market sothat they could achieve the best results. As a part of this strategy,businesses should re-evaluate their capabilities in key issues such as:the efficiency of human capital expending, the marketable level ofproducts, and then design a good strategy based on these evaluation.It’s also important to remember that with a development strategy, thesimpler the better, so that businesses could maximize operation andfocus on core business areas.
Currently, Vietnam 's economyis still in the development stage, the enterprises face difficulties infinding raw materials and ancillary materials. Many manufacturingenterprises said that most of them have to import raw materials whileancillary materials is scattered, which made the production costly,time-consuming and presenting a disadvantage compared with foreigncompanies, especially Chinese businesses who have a specific zone toprovide ancillary materials.
These difficulties havediscouraged many investors, instead of increasing investment they havegone to build their own business so that they can calculate morecarefully the cost and make use of private capital. These newenterprises are also more careful in doing business. However, therestill have been many businesses who have foreseen new opportunities andtherefore actively expanded investment, believing that the market in2013 will get stronger supported by the stimulus plan of the government.
However, the survey ‘outlook for macro-economy and enterpriserestructuring from the perspective of the best Vietnamese businesses2013’ conducted by Vietnam Report also shows that besides the businesseswho stay positive about the future, 46 percent of enterprises who wereasked believed that the economy cannot recover in this year. Theenterprises who believed that the macro-economy will strengthen in thesecond half of 2013 also are less than those who think otherwise.
The prospect of the economy on the way to recovery is reasonable.However, whether the situation can become a springboard for businessesto reach for sustainable development or not is still a question toanswer.-VNA
