Forecast on solid ground for Vietnam’s economic growth: Sputnik

The forecasts by financial institutions and the world’s top credit rating agencies for Vietnam’s economic growth are grounded in solid facts, said Russia’s Sputnik radio.
Forecast on solid ground for Vietnam’s economic growth: Sputnik ảnh 1A production line for textile export (Photo: VNA)

Hanoi (VNA) - The forecasts by financial institutions and the world’s top credit rating agencies for Vietnam’s economic growth are grounded in solid facts, said Russia’s Sputnik radio.

The World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Moody’s, Fitch, Standard & Poor's, Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB), and the UK’s Standard Chartered Bank offered optimistic opinions about the Vietnamese economy amid the dull economic landscape all over the world.

In the Asia Economic Outlook released by the IMF on October 11, Vietnam’s gross domestic product is forecast to grow by 7 percent this year. While one-third of the world economies are predicted to contract, this growth is considered a miracle.

Most notably, the IMF has described the country as a bright spot in the global economy and continues to forecast Vietnamese GDP growth to grow 7 percent this year, higher than its previous projection of 6 percent. 

In line with this, Vietnamese GDP growth is the highest among the ASEAN-5 group that made up of Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand.

The ASEAN-5 group is therefore forecast to grow 5.3 percent this year, rising from 3.4 percent last year, but will slow down to 4.9 percent in 2023, according to details given by the report.

The IMF’s latest report outlines that Asia's real GDP growth is projected to reach 4 percent this year, in comparison to recorded 6.5 percent last year.

This represents the fourth time that the IMF has moved to lower its economic growth forecast for the region amid global instability as several major economies such as Europe, the United States, and China have experienced high inflation coupled with an economic growth slowdown.

According to details put forward by the IMF, the dynamic Asia region has been significantly affected by escalating commodity prices, lower demand from major economies, as well as the consequences of disruptions occurring in the global supply chain.

Emerging Asian economies are forecast to reach 4.4 percent this year, rising to 4.9 percent in 2023, representing a drop of 20 percentage points and 10 percentage points respectively compared to the IMF’s projection made in July. In 2023, Vietnamese GDP growth is also projected to slow to 6.2 percent.

Though the WB revised down Vietnam’s economic growth to 7.2 percent from 7.5 percent, it highlighted that the figure remains high amid the global slowdown.

The lender attributed that to the country’s strong recovery and solid manufacturing and processing activities.

Meanwhile, Standard Chartered upgraded Vietnam’s growth outlook to 7.5 percent from 6.7 percent, saying that the figure could reach 7-7.2 percent next year.

The UOB offered a prediction of 8.2 percent growth this year while Moody’s was the most optimistic with 8.5 percent.

Previously, international organisations also highlighted Vietnamese economic stability. For example, in the World Bank’s East Asia and Pacific Update in October, Vietnamese GDP growth is projected to stand at 7.2 percent compared to the projection released in June of 5.8 percent.

In the latest ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO 2022) report, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) also outlined an optimistic prediction for the Vietnamese economy by raising the country’s GDP growth to 7 percent from 6.3 percent in July.

In September, Moody’s Investors Service upgraded Vietnam’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to Ba2 from Ba3 and changed the outlook to stable from positive. Vietnam is the only country in Asia-Pacific and one of the four countries in the world to have ratings upgraded by Moody’s since early this year, showing that its economy has growing strengths and greater resilience to external macroeconomic shocks that are indicative of improved policy effectiveness.

The economy is back on track, Minister-Chairman of the Government Office Tran Van Son said, noting that the GDP growth hit 13.6 percent in the third quarter of 2022 and 8.83 percent in the first nine months of the year, the highest since 2011.

Vietnam has maintained a stable macro-economy, keeping inflation under control and the CPI numbers picking up 2.73 percent, he said./.


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