Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung. (Photo: VietnamPlus)
Hanoi (VNA) – Although many important socioeconomic development indicators are below projections and not as high as they should be, they have improved gradually, month by month and quarter by quarter.
On that basis, the Ministry of Planning and Investment proposed three growth scenarios of 5%, 5.5% and 6% for 2023, meaning that the growth in the fourth quarter should be 7%, 8.8% and 10.6% respectively.
These growth scenarios pose challenges, said Minister of Planning and Planning, Nguyen Chi Dung.
Businesses, sectors, and municipal governments must be proactive, and work hard toward developing new commerce streams to boost growth, he said.
Minister Dung pointed out that growth in the fourth quarter will depend heavily on the speed of recovery in industrial production, especially the processing and manufacturing industries. In addition, export growth will be driven by increased demand in Vietnam's key export markets, plus increased domestic consumption toward year end, and ahead of Lunar New Year 2024.
The minister emphasised that Vietnam’s economy is recovering, achieving important results in all fields over the past nine months. However, it will be difficult to reach the proposed growth target, especially in the face of "dual challenges" from the volatile global situation and domestic limitations.
International organisations including the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the World Bank and the World Monetary Fund (IMF) were also cautious on forecasts of the global economy, including Vietnam.
Vietnam sees weaker-than-expected growth in the first half of 2023, as external demand from major global markets continues to decline and core inflation increases. (Photo: VietnamPlus)
Green transformation and sustainable development
Dr. Nguyen Xuan Thanh of the Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management, said a growth rate of 6.5% in 2023 as set by the National Assembly is extremely difficult.
He calculated that if GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters increases by 6.5% and 7.5% respectively, depending on exports and interest rates, GDP in 2023 should increase by 5.5%.
Approximately 1.2-1.3 percentage points can be added to the growth rate if 95% of the public investment plan of 707 trillion VND (30.1 billion USD) is disbursed (an increase of 24.6% compared to 2022) This would inject needed momentum into the economy and have a positive influence on the GDP.
Dr Nguyen Xuan Thanh, Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management, Fulbright University Vietnam (Photo: VietnamPlus)
Thanh said the Government needs to focus on medium-term public investment. The Vietnamese economy needs to spend 32-35 billion USD as public investment per year during the 2024-2026 period with 30.1 billion USD for 2023.
"Most importantly, the increased amount of public investment capital needs to be provided for infrastructure investment projects, especially green transformation and sustainable development projects," Thanh said.
Minister Nguyen Chi Dung said that the ministry has proposed a number of solutions to increase access to credit capital for people and businesses, including a credit package of 120 trillion VND for social housing loans.
The ministry also proposed solutions to promote public investment disbursement and promptly resolve problems in construction material supply, and land clearance to speed up the progress of key national projects./.
