Job-seekers fill out forms at a job fair held by the Hanoi Employment Service Centre. (Photo: vneconomy.vn) According to the Private Economic Development Research Board(Board IV), of the 9,560 companies surveyed in late April, 82% saidthey would either downsize or cease operation for the rest of theyear because of falling orders.
Over 5,200 respondents cited layoffs as a measure to dealwith the economic downturn and over 2,100 planned to cut more thanhalf of their workforce. It is worth noting that most of the latter clusteredaround Ho Chi Minh City and Binh Duong province.
Based on the survey, Board IV forecast that job cuts couldcontinue unabated between now and the end of the year. And in addition tothe redundancies, 30% of the companies would see their revenues drop by half.
The result of the Board IV survey was not sodifferent from that of the survey by the Ministry of Labour,Invalids, and Social Affairs, which forecast in mid-May that rounds oflayoffs would re-emerge unless the situation turns around.
Job cuts would be more evident in labour-intensive sectors,including textiles, footwear, and seafood. For instance, the PouyuenCompany has planned to slash 8,000 workers between early January and July8.
The majority of the workers facing the axe wouldbe women and those over 40 years old. They have been scheduled for layoffson the grounds of "cutting capacity amid falling orders".
Pham Ngoc Toan, Director of the Center for Information, Analytics,and Strategic Forecast, said there were 52.2 million people in the workforce inQ1, of which two-thirds were employed in the informal sector.
He forecast that global weakening demand would continue tocause job losses in the economy. Job-seekers in the textiles andwooden furniture sectors would be among those on the receiving end of thechanging consumption patterns.
Ageism would fuel the situation by making it more difficult formiddle-aged candidates to get a job. Legally, firms are not allowed tofavour one age group over others, but in practice, it is a different story.
"Firms prefer younger candidates inrecruitment because they are believed to havehigher productivity," Toan said.
The director was concerned that the labour supply-demandimbalance would lead to a soaring number of discouragedjob-seekers, who would leave the formal market for good and immediatelywithdraw their lump-sum social insurance.
He called for new approaches to analytics and forecasting to keepjob-seekers and recruiters well-informed about the market, thus mitigatingasymmetric information and improving the job-matching process.
In Q1/2023, over 149,000 workers were rendered jobless on theunfavorable economic situation, up 13% quarter by quarter. Layoffs were runningrampant here and there, but Hanoi appeared as a bright spot in the greypicture.
Vu Quang Thanh, Deputy Director of the Hanoi Employment ServiceCentre, said job openings in the city dropped in Q1 but to asmaller extent than in previous quarters. Some firms cut jobs, but otherscreated jobs, offsetting the negative impact.
Remarkably, job opportunities in certain sectors were buckingthe trend thanks to resilient small- and medium-sized firms, whichhad been weathering the global downturn with less severe damages thanexpected.
"Job openings in Hanoi are increasing in certainsectors, including information technology, e-commerce, and finance," Thanhsaid.
The deputy director called for a job database to improve thejob-matching process in the market. He also highlighted the importance of jobfairs and hiring events in balancing labour supply and demand.
"We have established 15 job-matching facilities in 15districts to connect job-seekers and recruiters," Thanh added.
Hanoi's Municipal Department of Labour, Invalids, and SocialAffairs revealed that in the first five months of 2023, the authoritieshelped 85,784 out of 162,000 job-seekers get employed, reaching 52.9% ofthe annual target.
The figure was lower than that in the same period last year(96,900 job-seekers getting employed). Such a decline, the departmentbelieves, could be attributed to the Ukraine-Russian conflict, the rising fuelprices, and high interest rates.
"Falling orders are causing widespread damage to the economyand are likely to continue into next year. Sectors bearing the brunt wouldinclude textiles, footwear, and timber-processing," a departmentrepresentative said./.
VNA
