In 2025, Vietnam’s GDP grew by 8%, beating UOB’s forecast of 7.7% but still falling short of the Government’s target of 8.3–8.5%, which would have needed an extraordinary boost in the final quarter.
The 2026 outlook stays broadly favourable, though a mix of risks and opportunities lies ahead.
In a developing economy like Vietnam, where banks are the main capital providers, monetary policy is an essential instrument for the Government to promote sustainable and robust economic growth.
This policy is expected to motivate large banks to participate in handling weak banks, while opening up more credit space for the economy.
The central bank called on credit organisations to cut costs and profits to lower lending rates further, supporting households and firms.
It is important to exercise strict oversight to maintain the stability of the banking system and continuously monitor and assess restructured credit institutions as well as potentially weak banks in order to implement timely and effective solutions, said Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc.
Singapore posted a year-on-year gross domestic product growth (GDP) of 4.3% in the second quarter of this year, following a 4.1% gain in the first three months – outperforming the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s forecast of 0% to 2% growth for the full year.
Based on these assumptions and after factoring in the impacts on manufacturing and FDI inflows, UOB's Global Economics & Market Research Unit estimated that Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2025 will be 0.9 percentage point higher than its initial baseline forecast, reaching 6.9% compared to the previous projection of 6.0%.
The analysis from an investment perspective shows that the economy’s growth has been heavily capital‑driven, yet efficiency remains low as reflected by Vietnam’s Incremental Capital-Output Ratio (ICOR) being significantly higher than global and regional averages. This underscores the imperative to enhance capital‑use efficiency.
Vietnam should not rely on a single market or a single growth driver like export, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said, stressing the need to diversify products, and production and supply chains to sustain growth.
These efforts, in conjunction with the implementation of monetary policies and other macroeconomic policies, aim to solve difficulties for businesses and the public, stabilise the macroeconomy, control inflation, ensure the balance of the economy, promote economic growth, and secure social welfare and people's livelihoods.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore will "reduce slightly the slope" of the dollar trading band, which it said will ensure medium-term price stability.
Remittances to Ho Chi Minh City in 2024 reached over 9.5 billion USD, up 0.9% year-on-year, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)'s branch in the city announced on January 16.
Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) has revised its forecast for Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth to 7% from its previous projection of 6.6%, following the strong momentum from 2024.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is projected to stay high and persist longer than anticipated throughout 2025, exerting continued pressure on the Vietnamese dong exchange rate.
A strong US dollar will still be a major factor influencing the USD/VND exchange rate in 2025, causing the Vietnamese dong to depreciate by about three% against the dollar, experts forecast.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) on October 14 decided to keep unchanged its monetary policy stance, as its economy improved in the third quarter of this year.
An economist of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has emphasised the need to strengthen the resilience of the Vietnamese economy against natural disasters given the devastating consequences of Typhoon Yagi, the strongest to hit Vietnam in decades, and its aftermath.
Vietnam’s economy showed robust recovery in the first half of 2024 and continues to maintain momentum despite global uncertainty.
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has relaxed monetary measures in the context of sharp declines in the foreign exchange rate in recent days.