A bank teller of National Citizen Bank counts cash at a transaction office in Hanoi. Vietnamese management authorities have also gradually controlled difficulties, such as high interest rates and restricted credit, successfully since September this year. (Photo: VNA) Citing forecast data of financial institutions, financial expert Dr Dinh TheHien said Vietnam's GDP growth rate in 2023 will slow to below 7%, but it isstill a good growth rate compared to that of ASEAN region (4.9%), Asia-Pacific(4.6%), and the world (2%). The National Assembly has recently also approvedthe country’s GDP in 2023 at about 6.5%, which is also close to the aboveforecasts.
Hien said both international financial institutions and Vietnamese expertsforecast the difficulties and challenges of the Vietnamese economy in 2023 willcome from external factors, especially the decline in consumption of developedcountries and disruption of the global supply chain. However, Vietnam still hascertain advantages and opportunities besides the pessimism on interest ratesand inflation.
According to Hien, Vietnamese management authorities have gradually controlledhigh interest rates and restricted credit, which will help the country avoidshocks like in the 2011-12 period. Therefore, concerns about the banking systemand corporate bonds have been gradually removed.
Hien predicts difficulties related interest rates and credit will be resolvednext year. Interest rates will cool down in the first quarter of 2023 andstabilise by the end of the second quarter of 2023. Credit sources withreasonable interest rates for production and business enterprises will increasegradually from the second quarter of 2023. Meanwhile, exports will continue todecline in the first two quarters of 2023, but will rebound in the thirdquarter of 2023.
"The difficulties for the domestic economy will ease from the secondquarter of 2023 and gain positive growth from the third quarter of 2023, buoyedby upbeat impacts from public investment, and financial and monetary stability.At the same time, the real estate market is also expected to recover slightlyfrom the fourth quarter of 2023, mainly in urban areas, industrial parks andother areas with strong infrastructure investment," Hien forecast.
Tran Ngoc Bau, CEO of financial data provider WiGroup Data Company, is alsoupbeat about market liquidity in 2023.
According to Bau, though the economic forecast in 2023 is more difficult thanin 2022, with initial signals such as export order decline, the cause will be afactor for the Government to partly loose the monetary market to stimulateeconomic development. Therefore, the market liquidity is likely to be morepositive in the second half of 2023.
Nguyen Quang Thuan, chairman of financial data provider FiinGroup, expects thecorporate bond market in 2023 will be more active as credit institutionsincrease to issue bonds after policies are changed.
The market also expects many businesses in 2023 will issue bonds to the publicafter being rated.
In addition, other capital channels such as issuing green bonds andborrowing/issuing international bonds are also forecast to be further improved,helping businesses have more opportunities to access capital.
However, experts also recommend in the difficult context, businesses need toreview their investment portfolios and limit high risk projects. The businessesshould review current debt obligations, proactively make public transparentinformation and improve credit profile for a longer-term capital strategy./.
VNA
