E-commerce and logistics are expected to see bright prospects in 2022. (Photo: VNA)
Hanoi (VNA) – Though many Vietnamese businesses have made promising strides thanks to their swift response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many others went bankrupt. Therefore, in addition to the State’s policies, it is vital to map out a way to help them overcome the crisis.
Slow economic recovery
Evaluating the economic trend in 2022 and 2023, economist Dr Vo Tri Thanh pointed out that forecasts showed the recovery of the global economy is clear but likely to slow down and be uneven among nations.
Thanh said the current risks remain huge. Many countries are expected to reduce or stop support packages, as well as preferential interest rates and credit packages, making the recovery process more difficult.
In addition, the risks to the financial market have become bigger with the growth of the stock and property markets, and the worsening debt situation of the world.
According to the World Bank, the global economy has seen positive signals as nations have gradually opened their borders, supporting the recovery of goods production and investment around the world.
However, negative factors have also emerged, such as increasing inflation pressure in many countries and the risk of pandemic outbreaks in 2022 and the following years, possibly slowing down the recovery process of value chains.
In Vietnam, Nguyen Xuan Quang, Vice Director of the National Centre for Socio-economic Information and Forecast under the Ministry of Planning and Investment, predicted that the economic recovery in 2022 and the following years will face difficulties, as the pandemic put the country in a new context.
Quang stressed that the risk of inflation should not be underestimated as there are impacts from large fiscal stimulus packages and loosening credit programmes in support of businesses.
At the second session of the 15th National Assembly, the Government and NA set a GDP growth target of 6-6.5 percent in 2022; an average social productivity growth of 5.5 percent; the proportion of the workforce in the agriculture sector accounting for 27.5 percent of the society’s total workforce; the rate of trained workforce reaching 67 percent and rate of unemployment in urban areas dropping to below 4 percent.
The NA Resolution also defined the goals of safely and flexibly adapting to and effectively controlling the COVID-19 pandemic; optimally protecting the health and lives of people; removing difficulties for production and business; and effectively assisting people and enterprises.
Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI) Hoang Quang Phong said the business community believe in the goals and policies aimed at boosting socio-economic recovery and development in the whole country, maintaining long-term growth momentum, sustaining macroeconomic stability, and enhancing the self-reliance, resilience and adaptiveness of the economy.
Illustrative image (Photo: VNA)
Increasing stimulative capital and promising industries
Quang said that public investment plays an important role in both stimulating private investment and developing infrastructure, and promoting innovation and digital development in the economy.
According to the Ministry of Finance, by December 31, 2021, the disbursement of development investment capital reached 74.7 percent of the NA’s estimate and 77.3 percent of the Prime Minister’s assigned plan.
Therefore, there is much room for public investment disbursement in 2022, offering a chance to mobilise public investment sources and develop infrastructure, leading to a bigger demand for construction materials.
The recovered demand of the world and decreased supply from China will foster Vietnam’s exports, especially electronic products, garments-textiles, aquatic products, wood and wooden furniture, rubber, and iron and steel.
In the country, the consumption demand will gradually recover while the pandemic control and adaptation policies will be carried out effectively after a long period of social distancing and travel restrictions. Food and beverage companies, retailers and aviation businesses will benefit from these changes.
In this context, Quang believed that the e-commerce and logistics sectors will continue enjoying good prospects in the coming year, thanks to changes in the consumption and shopping habits of people since the pandemic broke out. E-commerce is forecast to boom in 2022.
Supporting industries, especially logistics, will also recover as Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are expected to foster Vietnam’s international trade and production, Quang noted.
In addition to digital banking, the information technology industry will also recover rapidly with corporate software, equipment and services, he added./.
