Standard Chartered has forecast Vietnam’s GDP growth at 10.8% in the third quarter. (Photo: VietnamPlus) Hanoi (VNA) – Standard Chartered has forecast Vietnam’s GDP growth at 10.8% in the third quarter and 3.9% in the last quarter of 2022, contributing to annual expansion of 6.7%.
Strong economic recovery will be seen in the latter half of the year, especially when the tourism sector has reopened after a two-year shutdown, according to Tim Leelahaphan, Standard Chartered's economist for Thailand and Vietnam.
Economists at the bank also projected that the State Bank of Vietnam will keep the interest rate at 4% this year to assist businesses and the recovery process despite growing inflation. Retail sales will continue improving strongly, with 30.2% in July, compared to 27.3% in June.
Imports, exports and industrial production are predicted to respectively increase by 22.2%, 20% and 15% in July, compared to 20%, 16.3% and 11.5% in June. Meanwhile, Vietnam is likely to record a trade deficit this month, they said.
Inflation will accelerate to 3.6% in July from 3.4% in June - the fastest pace in two years, mostly due to supply pressure while demand is also gradually increasing, Leelahaphan noted, adding that inflation is still under control at present.
Recently, HSBC raised Vietnam’s growth outlook this year to 6.9% from the previous prediction of 6.6% but also downgraded the forecast for 2023 to 6.3% from 6.7%.
The Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) also revised up the country’s 2022 GDP growth forecast to 7.0% from 6.5%, assuming no further severe domestic disruptions from COVID-19, and growth of around 7.6% - 7.8% in the second half of the year.
Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) maintained its growth forecast issued in mid-April, at 6.5% for 2022 and 6.7% for 2023.
In the first half of 2022, Vietnam’s GDP grew 6.4% from the same period last year thanks to the expansion of 9.7% in the manufacturing sector and 6.6% in the service sector.
Vietnam’s economy is estimated to grow by 6.42% in the first half of 2022, higher than expected, heard a Government teleconference on July 4.
According to a report by the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the country’s macro-economy continued to be stable, inflation was controlled and major balances were ensured during the first six months, in which the average consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.44%, a relatively low level compared to the same period of pre-pandemic years.
The monetary market was basically stably, while State budget revenue was estimated at 66.1% of the yearly plan, up 18.8% year-on-year, import and export turnover increased by 16.4% year-on-year, of which exports rose by 17.3% and imports by 15.5%. Disbursed FDI grew by 8.9%, showing that businesses and investors continue to believe in the prospect of economic recovery and development of Vietnam.
Industrial production recovered quickly, with the added value in the second quarter up 9.87% year-on-year. The number of newly-established enterprises and those returning to the labour market also rose by 25.4% year-on-year.
Socio-cultural fields continued receiving attention, tourism and service activities recovered and were stepped up, defence security was ensured, and external affairs were intensified.
Regarding several concerning issues related to education and training, especially the teaching and learning of history, increases in tuition fees and textbooks, Minister of Education and Training Nguyen Kim Son said that the sector is focusing on researching and designing the history curriculum in high schools, including both compulsory and selective areas, in a logical and scientific way to ensure the highest efficiency.
The ministry also proposed waiving all tuition fees for secondary school students nationwide for the 2022-2023 academic year, and is implementing directions from the Government and the Prime Minister on the price of textbooks, added Son./.
