In its ‘Thailand Economic Monitor for December 2022: FiscalPolicy for a Resilient and Equitable Future’ report, released on December 14,the bank forecast the economy to grow by 3.4% in 2022 and 3.6% next year.
The growth in 2023 has been revised down by 0.7 percentage pointcompared to June projections reflecting faster-than-expected decline in globaldemand. The tourism sector's recovery and private consumption will remain the majordrivers of growth.
The report also finds that the Thai economy has shownresilience to recent global shocks. Economic growth accelerated to 4.5% in thethird quarter fueled by resurgent private consumption and strong tourisminflows following economic reopening in May and the authorities’ measures tomitigate cost-of-living pressures.
According to the report, Thailand’s fiscal response toCOVID-19 significantly mitigated the impact of the crisis on household welfare.Poverty is, however, projected to rise to 6.6% in 2022 from 6.3% in 2021 as theCOVID-19 relief measures start to be phased out amid elevated inflation.
The report recommends improving jobs and earningsopportunities among low-income groups, while creating fiscal space to achieveadequate spending on social assistance for the most vulnerable groups, includingelderly, disabled and extreme poor people. Financing the necessary publicinvestments in physical and digital infrastructure and human capital to promotegrowth and human development in the longer term will also be critical forachieving sustainable poverty reduction./.