Too early to tell if A/H1N1 flu peak over, says WHO

It is too early to say that the A/H1N1 flu pandemic has peaked in all parts of the world, the World Health Organisation’s emergency committee said here.
It is too early to say that the A/H1N1 flu pandemic has peaked in all parts of the world, the World Health Organisation’s emergency committee said here.

“The Committee advised that it was premature to conclude that all parts of the world have experienced peak transmission of the H1N1 pandemic influenza,” a spokesman said on Feb. 23, adding more “time and information was needed”.

Gregory Hartl said the decision of 15 experts was not binding, and that a final decision would be taken by WHO Secretary General Margaret Chan.

But the committee felt that more time and more information was needed to give an informed opinion on the state of the pandemic, he added.

Their conclusions would be set out in more detail in a press conference on Feb. 24, which will include the WHO’s special adviser on pandemics, Keiji Fukuda.

Their views will help national health authorities recalibrate their flu planning and strategy.

The 15-member emergency committee headed by Australian infections diseases expert John Mackenzie has been following signs over the past months that the A/H1N1 flu virus was tailing off in most parts of the world.

“What we are hoping for is that the worst is behind us,” Keiji Fukuda, special adviser to the WHO Director-General on Pandemic Influenza, said earlier this month.

Several countries have already been running down their costly special pandemic flu precautions in recent weeks.

Most recently, the Czech health authorities cancelled around a third of their order of 1 million H1N1 vaccines from British pharmaceutical company GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) on Feb. 19.

And new recommendations issued by the WHO for later this year incorporate the A/H1N1 virus into seasonal vaccines.

Nearly 16,000 people have died worldwide from the new A/H1N1 strain after it spread into 212 countries and overseas territories since it was uncovered in Mexico and the United States in April 2009, WHO data showed.

Overall, A/H1N1 flu was declining in most of the northern hemisphere, except for recent reported increases in West Africa.

The post-peak phase does not mean that the pandemic is over but that it is in a transition phase.

If confirmed, it could lead the WHO to revise the recommendations it made to its 193 member states, on precautions such as vaccination, to help governments adapt to the new phase./.

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