Containers at Gemalink deep-sea port in Ba Ria-Vung Tau province (Photo: VNA) This is in contrast to its downward projection for most economies in ASEAN+3.
In its January update, AMRO estimated ASEAN 3 growth for 2023 at 4.3%, downfrom the 4.6 growth in the previous projection. The region’s growth in 2022 wasalso revised down from 3.7% to 3.3%. The downward projection is mainly due tothe continuing weakness of Plus-3 economies, especially China, where growth hasbecome much weaker.
China’s 2022 growth was estimated at 3% and is forecast to grow by 5% in 2023(down from the 5.3% in October projection).
Vietnam’s economy meanwhile was projected to expand 8% in 2022.
The 2023 growth outlook for ASEAN is forecast down from 4.9% to 4.8%, aslowdown compared to the 5.6% growth of 2022.
According to AMRO, the drag on economic activity from aggressive monetarypolicy tightening in the United States and the Eurozone will be felt more fullythis year, translating to softer export orders for the ASEAN+3.
However, the ongoing resumption of tourism — especially with the return ofChinese tourists — will provide a much-needed boost to growth.
“With recession risks still haunting the United States and Europe, China’seconomic reopening cannot come at a better time for the region,” said AMROChief Economist Hoe Ee Khor. “China’s stronger economy will support regionalactivity while the border reopening will boost intraregional tourism.”
China’s economy is expected to rebound strongly, reflecting the removal ofcontainment measures and reopening of its economy.
Inflation is moderating across ASEAN+3, tempered by sustained policy tighteningby central banks and easing global supply chain bottlenecks. Oil prices havereverted to almost pre-pandemic levels, reflecting weaker global demand. Pricesof key agricultural commodities - although remaining relatively high due to theprolonged war in Ukraine - have fallen from their 2022 peaks.
Vietnam’s inflation is predicted to come in at 3% in 2023 (down from 3.2% inthe previous forecast). Inflation for the ASEAN+3 region was revised down from6.3% in 2022 to 4.5% in 2023, and for ASEAN at 5.4% in 2023 from 7.7% in2022./.
