Given Vietnam’s inflation control in 2025, economists expect inflation in 2026 to remain moderate, averaging about 3.5%. Still, higher international logistics and transport costs could keep driving up production expenses and commodity prices, she noted.
In 2026, monetary policy will continue to be implemented in a proactive, flexible, timely and effective manner to help stabilise the macroeconomy, keep inflation under control, support economic growth and advance the restructuring of banks under compulsory transfer.
The State Bank of Vietnam’s Regional Branch No. 2 said banking capital has been channelled mainly into priority sectors, production and business activities, and key programmes, contributing to market stability and supporting the city’s economic recovery and growth.
According to Professor Vu Minh Khuong of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, the 8% growth rate represents Vietnam's extraordinary effort and has created a strong impression among international investors and economic partners.
The SBV pegged 2025 credit expansion at 16%, matching the economy’s growth goal, and will make adjustments if needed, Son said.
Vietnam's bank credit by September 29 this year increased by 13.37% compared to the end of 2024. The credit structure in the first nine months of this year continued to focus on the production and business sector, especially priority sectors and economic growth drivers according to the Government's policy.
Experts warned that excessive capital concentration in high-risk sectors like real estate and securities, risks of imbalances and non-performing loans could increase.
Vietnamese banks are entering the final stretch of 2025 with accelerated credit growth, flexible lending quotas, and lower interest rates, the steps that experts say could push the credit expansion beyond the set target of 16%.
The central bank called on credit organisations to cut costs and profits to lower lending rates further, supporting households and firms.
Credit growth for agriculture and rural development in Vietnam rose 5.31% in the first half of 2025, representing 23.16% of total loans, easing the sector’s long-standing capital shortage.
Inflationary pressure in the second half of 2025 would remain moderate, as factors driving prices up and down are expected to balance each other out. Assuming the CPI rises by an average of 0.27% per month, matching the average increase in the last six months of the 2015-24 period, the average inflation rate for 2025 is forecasted at 3.4%.
By June 2025, Vietnam's total credit had reached over 17.2 quadrillion VND (658.43 billion USD), up 9.9% from end-2024 and 19.32% year-on-year—the highest growth rate since 2023—signalling strong recovery in manufacturing, agriculture, and supporting sectors.
Experts said a large portion of this influx of cash will likely flow into promising investment avenues like real estate and securities, especially given the current volatility in the gold market.
In 2025, credit growth is forecast to continue its upward trajectory, driven by factors ranging from flexible monetary policies to robust corporate borrowing demand.
Credit for the individual customer segment last year slowed, while GDP last year recorded a strong recovery and household income growth remained low.
VNDirect estimated that the total value of privately placed corporate bonds maturing in 2025 will reach about 203 trillion VND (8 billion USD), reflecting an 8.5% increase from the previous year.
The following is a brief review of the day’s events as reported by the Vietnam News Agency.
Credit growth across the banking sector reached 15.08% as of the end of 2024, exceeding the year’s target of 15%, according to Standing Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) Dao Minh Tu.
Credit growth across Vietnam's banking system is projected to reach about 16% in 2025, according to the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV).
Commercial banks' pre-tax profits in 2025 are forecast to grow by 14.9% year-on-year, while bad debt has peaked and is expected to decrease next year.