Buyers at the Vincom Shopping Mall in Da Nang city (Photo VNA) Hanoi (VNA) - Experts are sanguine about the health of the stockmarket in 2018 even as they acknowledge likely risks and imbalances.
Voicing her opinion at an online discussion on December 20, PhamMinh Huong, Chairwoman of the Board at VNDIRECT Securities Corporation, saidthe stock market’s 2017 growth was spectacular but not surprising.
Her prediction for 2018 was that the finance, energy andmanufacturing sectors will experience strong growth, which means they arelikely to be recommended to both up-and-coming and experienced investors byfinancial experts.
Huong said that although the banking and finance sector wouldstill face a lot of institutional and bad debt risks, commercial banks,securities and insurance companies have learned their lessons and are wellprepared for the challenges to come.
With Vietnam’s fast-growing consumer economy, themanufacturing and energy sectors will always be attractive. Aviation is anothersafe bet, as living standards and tourism increase, she said.
The year 2018 is set to mark the beginning of Vietnam’s nextstage of financial growth, with the Vietnamese stock market upgraded toemerging market status in late 2019 or early 2020.
Huong also expected the VN-Index to surpass its peak of 1,170points in 2017, and she was backed by some experts who foresaw a veryoptimistic 2018 scenario of 1,500 to 1,700 points.
The 2017 stock market growth will continue to be supported bythe world economic growth cycle, she added.
In the same vein, prominent economist Vo Tri Thanh said thathis research shows Vietnam’s stock market growth rate will continue at a high,although investors should expect lagging periods in 2018.
In the same vein, prominent economist Vo Tri Thanh said thathis research shows Vietnam’s stock market growth rate will continue at a high,although investors should expect lagging periods in 2018.
The world economy in general and the Vietnamese stock marketin particular are likely to face some risks, as leading global stock markets gothrough adjustments in late 2018 and early 2019.
The Eurozone is highly unlikely to maintain its economicstimulus packages, and Chinese public debt continues to rise.
Income inequality in leading economies, trade protectionism,uncertainty about major trade and investment negotiations, housing bubbles,geo-political tensions and inflation rates will all begin to increase, Thanhpredicted.
Vietnam’s 2018 economic forecast remains positive, but notat 2017 levels, he claimed.
The 2018 growth target approved by the National Assembly, of6.5 to 6.7 per cent, shows a certain lowering of expectations and an increasein caution, compared to 2017, Thanh said.
Besides global risks, the need to synchronise short-termgrowth and institutional restructuring should not be ignored, he said.
While agreeing with Thanh and Huong, Truong Van Phuoc, actingChairman of the Vietnam National FinancialSupervision Council (NFSC), said that the push for a credit growth ofover 20 per cent since the second quarter this year over concerns that GDPgrowth could fall short of the 2017 target was understandable, but the keyissue was growth quality, not quantity.
At the moment, stock market investors are pouring capitalinto securities and real estate, forming an indirect growth channel for theVietnamese economy, he said.
But Phuoc expressed concern over imbalances in the financialmarkets, especially the lack of harmony between the currency and capitalmarkets.
He strongly advocated the establishment of a moderate-levelfinancial market with accommodating and open policies.
Bang Hyun Woo, Samsung Vietnam’s Senior Vice President andChief Relations Officer, shared his thoughts on cryptocurrencies, mainlybitcoin, which he considered to have both good and bad sides.
He believed that Vietnamese investors trading in bitcoin canhave some impact on the exchange rates.
He advised investors to be very careful and to withdraw theirinvestment in the coin investment at the earliest sign of the bubble bursting.
Jointly organised by the online news sites Tri Thuc Tre and CafeF, the discussion reviewed economic growth in 2017 and prospects for 2018prospects, focusing in particular on investment opportunities, equitisation ofmajor state-owned enterprises, and the future of cryptocurrency.-VNA
VNA
