A worker checking fabric at a company in the northern province of Nam Dinh. (Photo: VNA) Ata seminar on market and pricing held in Hanoi on January 4, Director of theInstitute of Economics and Finance Nguyen Ba Minh forecast the average consumerprice index (CPI) in 2022 will increase roughly 2-3 percent compared to 2021.
Accordingto Minh, inflation in 2022 will be well controlled as it will be difficult forglobal raw material prices to increase significantly due to the complicatedspread of new variant Omicron, trade wars and political conflicts in the world.
Purchasingpower in the domestic market will be still weak because the income of workershas been reduced, as production stagnated during the pandemic.
Minhforecast gasoline prices to be stable at 65-80 USD per barrel.
Heexplained if the oil price increases sharply, the US will increase the supplyof shale oil. At that time, the US will gain the oil market share of OPEC andOPEC countries, meaning the latter will then have to increase the supply tocause oil prices to fall again.
Discussingpork prices in 2022, Minh said the domestic supply of pork is quite abundant.The product’s price has decreased sharply compared to December 2020 and willalso be stable at 45,000-60,000 VND per kg until the end of 2022.
ExpertNguyen Duc Do also agreed that CPI in 2022 will remain at a low level. Thoughthe economy is recovering, the output of 2022 will still be below potential. IfVietnam’s GDP in 2022 grows by 6.5 percent, the Government’s target, or even8-9 percent as some forecast, the average GDP growth rate in the 2020-22 periodis only at 4-5 percent, much lower than 6 percent in the 2011-20 period, heexplained.
However,experts said controlling inflation in 2022 will not be easy as the index canincrease quite high from the beginning of this year, in the wake of the globaleconomic recovery and commodity prices on an upward trend.
Theeconomic recovery in 2022, under the impacts of economic development supportpackages, will cause consumption and investment demands to increase, puttingpressure on prices.
Expertssuggested pandemic prevention will provide the prerequisite for production andmarket stability to keep CPI under 4 percent this year, as set by the NationalAssembly.
Accordingto economist Ngo Tri Long, the authorities should closely monitor supply anddemand sources in the domestic market, especially before Lunar New Year, totake appropriate measures to control prices.
Atthe event, representatives from the Ministry of Finance’s Price ManagementDepartment said the department will closely monitor the world’s economic developmentsand inflation, promptly taking effective action in managing domestic productionand balancing local supply and demand in a move to successfully controlinflation right from the first months of 2022./.
VNA
