The MPI has developed three forecast scenarios for the last six months of this year and next year. (VNA/VNS Photo) Following the Government's regular meeting in June, the MPI developed a draftproject to ensure macroeconomic stability, control inflation and secure largetrade balances.
The draft will be reported to the Government Standing Committee within thismonth.
Last month, CPI grew by 3.18% compared to the end of last year. In the firstsix months of the year, the price index of raw materials used for productionincreased by 6.04% compared to the same period last year. Prices of manyimported inputs also soared.
Petrol prices and input materials increased with the recovery of domesticconsumption, which created inflationary pressure and high production costs,which in turn reduces production and slows down the recovery of production.
On the basis of the forecast of the domestic and international situation, theMinistry of Planning and Investment has developed three forecast scenarios forthe last six months of this year and next year.
In the best scenario, the macro economy is stable, inflation is controlled atabout four%, major trade balances are guaranteed, and economic growth this yearwill reach the set target and next year will reach the average target in the2021-2025 period at between 6.5-7%.
In the medium scenario, the macro economy is basically stable, inflation ishigher than 4%, but still under control, economic growth this year will reachthe set target, and next year’s growth only approaches the average target inthe 2021-2025 period.
With the low scenario, the macro economy will face many difficulties, inflationwill increase, economic growth this year will reach the set target, and nextyear’s growth will be lower than the average target of the 2021-2025 period./.
VNA
