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Petrol prices forecast to experience slight fluctuations in next adjustment: VPI

The Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI) has forecast that domestic petrol prices may see slight fluctuations in the adjustment on June 21.
Petrol prices forecast to experience slight fluctuations in next adjustment: VPI ảnh 1Illustrative image (Photo: VNA)
Hanoi (VNA) – The Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI)has forecast that domestic petrol prices may see slight fluctuations in the adjustment on June 21.

According to the VPI’s prediction, which was given with thesupport of the petrol priceforecasting model using Machine Learning, the retail price of RON95 mayincrease 197 VND per litre to 22,110 VND (0.94 USD) per litre, while the price of E5 biofuel isforecast to rise by 5 VND per litre or remain unchanged at 20,870 VND perlitre.

Meanwhile, the price of diesel is predicted to rise to 18,189 VND per litre, and that of kerosene may be pushed up by 205 VND per litreto 18,025 VND per litre.

Meanwhile, the price of mazut is predicted to fall by 27 VND perlitre to 14,683 VND per kilo. The VPI also predicted that management agenciesmay extract about 300 VND from each litre of petrol products for the fund forpetrol price stabilisation.

In the world market, on June 19 morning, the price of Brent oil fell by 68cents to 75.93 USD per barrel, while the WTI oil price fell by 59 cents to be tradedat 71.19 USD per barrel. Global crude oil prices dropped due to concerns abouta slow recovery of the Chinese economy despite the impact of OPEC productioncuts from last week and a decrease in the number of oil and gas rigs operatingin the US.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised up itsforecast for global oil demand in 2023 by 2.4 million barrel per day to arecord high of 102.3 million barrel per day. However, the IEA forecast thatglobal oil demand will decline by 860,000 barrel per day in 2024 due tounfavourable economic growth prediction. Global oil supply is forecast toincrease slightly at 101.3 million barrel per day in 2023 and 102.3 million barrelper day in 2024.

Wood Mackenzie revised down its 2023 average Brent oil priceforecast from 84.7 VND per barrel to 84.3 USD per barrel. Goldman Sachs alsoforecast that the oil price at the end of 2023 will decrease by nearly 10%, ofwhich the average Brent oil price will reach 86 USD each barrel and the averageWTI oil price will reach 81 USD per barrel in December 2023.

At the same time, JPMorgan also lowered its oil priceforecast for 2023 with Brent falling from 90 USD per barrel to 81 USD perbarrel, and WTI dropping from 84 USD per barrel to 76 USD per barrel. In 2024,JPMorgan reduced its forecast for Brent oil price from 98 USD per barrel to 83USD per barrel and WTI oil price from 94 USD per barrel to 79 USD per barrel.

VPI experts held that in the next few weeks, the petrol prices willcontinuously fluctuate when inflation data and interest rate adjustments areannounced.

In case the US Federal Reserve (FED) decides to keepinterest rates unchanged and the US Department of Energy continues to look foropportunities to buy additional oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, thedecline trend in oil prices may be reversed. Accordingly, VPI experts forecastthat Brent oil price in 2023 will be traded at an average price of 82 USD per barrel./.
VNA
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