HCM City (VNS/VNA) - Vietnam should fare reasonably well under the next Trump administration, according to investment management firm VinaCapital.
With the US presidential election now completed, all eyes have turned to what the new Trump administration will actually do once it takes office in January 2025.
“In many countries around the world, concerns are being raised about the impact of Trump’s election on their economies. However, we believe those risks are overestimated and we see no risk that Trump’s election will derail Vietnam’s healthy economic trajectory for a variety of reasons," said Michael Kokalari, a chartered financial analyst and chief economist at the company.
He noted that first and foremost, the US campaign was rife with outlandish statements and hyperbolic media reporting, leading to overly pessimistic perceptions of a second Trump administration, particularly the economic consequences.
Both presidential candidates vowed to “re-shore” manufacturing jobs back to the US if elected. Trump said he would impose 60% tariffs on imports from China and impose 20-30% tariffs on other countries to achieve that objective.
According to Kokalari, Trump promised high tariffs on the campaign trail because the threat of imposing tariffs (especially on China and Mexico) is powerful campaign rhetoric that appeals to one of Trump’s key constituencies, disaffected blue collar workers, and the 60% figure is probably a bargaining chip for future negotiations with China.
In reality, Trump has a number of accomplished individuals who are advising him on economic issues and they are likely to have more influence over him than those he had during his first administration. They fully understand the negative consequences of imposing overly draconian tariffs on imports to the US. Those negative consequences include preventing re-shoring manufacturing jobs to the US because draconian tariffs would push up the value of the US dollar.
Kokalari noted that inflation was low when Trump imposed tariffs on China, but this time draconian tariffs would exacerbate a major rebound in inflation. Trump has demonstrated that he will not put ideology ahead of economics, making it unlikely that he would actually take actions that would exacerbate inflation, especially given that the main reason he won re-election was voter dissatisfaction with the economy.
Little impact on Vietnam
Trump initiated the US-China trade war and Biden essentially continued it, making it clear that both US political parties view China as a strategic competitor to the US.
In contrast, there is an enthusiastic economic embrace of Vietnam at the highest levels of the US government. “Furthermore, Trump is a populist, and we are not aware of any significant reservations from American consumers to purchase “made in Vietnam” products,” Kokalari said.
Consequently, there’s no reason for Trump to target Vietnam from a populist standpoint. In fact, Vietnam may be viewed as helpful in weening the US off low-end China-made goods because high wages and low availability of qualified factory workers will likely limit US efforts to re-shore manufacturing jobs to only high value-added products, according to Kokalari.
He said: “In short, Vietnam can make things that US consumers want to buy but are too expensive to be made in the US and which Trump would prefer they don’t buy from China.”
However, Vietnam had a circa 100 billion USD trade surplus with the US last year, making it the country with the third-largest trade imbalance with the US after China and Mexico. At some point, this numerical imbalance would become an issue for the Trump administration, he warned.
He pointed out that the issue could be readily addressed by purchasing large-ticket products such as LNG and aircraft engines from the US.
The VinaCapital expert believed Vietnam should fare reasonably well under the next Trump administration.
“While some new US tariffs on imports are possible, we believe it’s very unlikely that the US will impose draconian tariffs (20-30%) on imports from Vietnam,” he said.
Furthermore, if the US were to impose blanket tariffs of, for example, 5-10% on imports from all countries besides China, Vietnam would retain its comparative advantages against other potential competitors for FDI inflows.
Consequently, the qualities that make Vietnam appealing to manufacturers now and that resulted in billions of dollars of FDI flowing into the country should continue.
“That said, Vietnam would be well-served to start looking at how it can reduce its trade surplus with the US before it becomes an issue with the new administration,” Kokalar emphasised./.
See more
500kV transmission line from Laos energised
The Monsoon – Thanh My 500kV transmission line project is designed to import electricity from Laos’ Monsoon wind power plant to Vietnam, adding 600 MW to the national power grid during the 2024–2025 period.
Vietnam's digital tech sector boasts nearly 74,000 companies
Total revenue of Vietnam's digital tech companies reached nearly 158 billion USD in 2024, a 10.2% year-on-year increase, according to the Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC).
Banks selling mortgaged assets to recover bad debts
The Viet Dragon Securities Company (VDSC) said that bad debts might continue to increase slightly this year, after a circular allowing banks to reschedule debt repayment periods and maintain the debt group for certain sectors expired at the end of 2024.
Vietnam’s export to Philippines tops 6 billion USD for first time
Vietnam’s trade with the Philippines has reached an impressive milestone, with turnover exceeding 8.6 billion USD in 2024, up 11% year-on-year, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Agency of Foreign Trade.
Vietnam seeks to set up cooperation with Brazilian locality
In his meeting with Governor of Brazil's Espirito Santo Renato Casagrande, Ambassador to Argentina Bui Van Nghi Bui Van Nghi valued the potential for cooperation between the two sides, particularly in priority areas such as tourism, information technology, hi-tech agriculture, and seaport.
Vietnam embraces circular economy with national action plan till 2035
Between now and 2030, Vietnam is committed to reducing the extraction and use of non-renewable and water resources, while simultaneously enhancing the efficiency of resource, material and energy usage.
Remittances surge as Tet approaches
According to the State Bank of Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh City branch, 9.6 billion USD, or 60% of the total remittances, flew through financial institutions, representing a 140 million USD increase from the previous year.
Reference exchange rate continues downward trend
The State Bank of Vietnam set the daily reference exchange rate for the US dollar at 24,325 VND/USD on January 24, down 3 VND from the previous day.
Banks' credit up 11.3% in HCM City in 2024
Total outstanding loans of credit institutions in Ho Chi Minh City as of the end of last year were worth over 3.9 quadrillion VND (153.3 billion USD), a 11.3% increase for the year, according to the central bank.
Vietnam to become Asia-Pacific region's fastest growing economy in 2026
The World Bank projects Vietnam's GDP growth at 6.3% in 2026, the highest in the Asia-Pacific region.
Vietnam's rice export predicted to face challenges in 2025
The Vietnamese rice sector is likely to face a host of challenges in export in 2025 after a successful year in 2024, according to experts.
Hai Phong seaport system strives to handle 112 million tonnes of cargo this year
To reach targets, the Hai Phong Maritime Port Authority is promoting administrative procedure reform by applying a specialised software, creating the most favourable conditions for maritime enterprises while still ensuring the effectiveness and efficiency of State management in the Hai Phong seaport area.
Can Tho industrial zones attract nearly 314 million USD in investment in January
In January, Can Tho’s export processing and industrial zones attracted nearly 314 million USD in investment, according to the zones’ management board.
Quang Tri, Italian company to collaborate in carbon credit generation
Acting Chairman of Quang Tri province Ha Sy Dong expressed his hope that the collaboration will effectively contribute to Vietnam’s and Italy’s international ecological environment commitments.
Remittances to HCM City surge ahead of Tet
Ho Chi Minh City received nearly 493 million USD in remittances in the first 20 days of this year, according to Nguyen Duc Lenh, Deputy Director of the State Bank of Vietnam's HCM City branch.
Kon Tum cracks down on durian, jackfruit quality control violations
The Central Highlands province of Kon Tum is implementing stricter quality control measures for durian and jackfruit exports following a warning from China about food safety lapses in some Vietnamese durian shipments.
Retail petrol prices down in latest adjustment
The price of E5RON92 bio-fuel was priced at 20,592 VND (0.82 USD) per litre, representing a 158 VND decrease from the previous baseline, while RON95-III decreased to 21,142 VND per litre, down 78 VND.
Realty companies expect up to 50% revenue growth in 2025
In an optimistic turn for the real estate industry, experts are eyeing substantial revenue growth of 25 to 50% for real estate companies in 2025.
Vietnam takes measures to tighten cross-border e-commerce
Vietnam E-commerce and Digital Economy Agency under the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) has been taking measures to enhance the management of cross-border e-commerce platforms.
European investment flows gain momentum in Vietnam
European investments are expected to pick up in Vietnam following Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s engagement with Czech and Polish enterprises as part of his trip to Europe to attend the 55th Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum.