Hanoi (VNA) – The Vietnamese economy is likely to record a strong development in the first quarter of this year thanks to Government’s support to businesses, improving public investment disbursement, and the positive results seen in the first two months of this year, according to Do Thi Ngoc, Deputy Director General of the General Statistics Office.
Ngoc granted VietnamPlus an interview on the socioeconomic performance of Vietnam in the first two months of the year and prospects for the coming months. Following is the content of the interview:
The index of industrial production rises 5.7% over the same period of 2023 (Photo: VietnamPlus) Reporter: Could you please give your comments on the socioeconomic situation in the first two months of 2024.
Ms. Do Thi Ngoc: The socioeconomic situation of Vietnam in the last two months bustled with the Lunar New Year (Tet) Festival. Many bright spots and positive signs were seen in various areas from agriculture, industry, service, import-export, and foreign investment.
Specifically, pig and poultry farming activities expanded well with a stable consumer market. People have expanded the size of their herds to meet the market's foodstuff demand. It is estimated that by the end of February, the total number of pigs in the country increased nearly 5% and that of poultry rose 2% compared to the same time last year. Aquaculture output was up 3%, which is a good level compared to the same period last year.
Besides, the two-month index of industrial production was estimated to increase 5.7% over the same period last year (the figure was down 2.9% in the same period in 2023). With that production background, upturn of about 19% was seen in the total import and export turnover of goods in the two months compared to the same period of 2023. Of this, exports reached over 59 billion USD, an increase of 19% (that of the domestic economic sector alone grew 33%), and imports hit 55 billion USD, up 18%, resulting in a trade surplus of 4.7 billion USD, higher than the 3.5 billion USD recorded in the same period last year.
Do Thi Ngoc, Deputy Director General of the General Statistics Office (Photo: VietnamPlus) Meanwhile, service activities in the past two months were also vibrant with expansion compared to the same period last year. Specifically, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue increased 8%. Passenger transportation rose 9% and passenger traffic was up 12%, while freight transportation and freight traffic increased 13.9% and 14%, respectively.
As for tourism, thanks to favourable visa policies and tourism stimulus programmes and efforts of the government and people, the number of international visitors to Vietnam reached more than 3 million people, up 69%, which is similar to the same period in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic broke out.
Notably, the disbursement of investment capital from the State budget from the beginning of the year made up 8.4% of the yearly plan, up 2% over the same period last year. Meanwhile, 2.8 billion USD of foreign direct investment was disbursed in Vietnam, an increase of 9.8%, the highest level in the first two months of a year in the past five years.
At the same time, inflation was controlled, while social welfare received due attention, especially during the Tet festival. Tet gifts worth nearly 7.8 trillion VND (316.49 million USD) and 17,700 tonnes of rice were presented to 13.9 million people.
Reporter: With such results, what do you forecast about the situation of the economy in general and particular production and business areas in the first quarter of this year?
Ms. Do Thi Ngoc: The global economy in 2024 is likely to continue facing many difficulties, while the openness of our country's economy is large, which means the country cannot avoid challenges, requiring great efforts from the Government in socioeconomic management.
It is forecast that industrial production will gradually recover, according to the results of the survey of business trends among enterprises in the processing and manufacturing industry for the first quarter of 2024. The survey showed that 31.6% of the enterprises expect a better situation compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, 40% predicting a stable situation, and 28.4% foreseeing more difficulties. Regarding production volume, 30.5% of the businesses forecast an increase, 42.4% rated it stable, and 27.1% predicted a decrease. In terms of orders, 29.3% of the businesses expected an increase, 43.4% thought the order number will be stable, and 27.3% projected a decrease. For export orders, 24.6% of the businesses reported an increase in new orders, 46.8% said they were stable, and 28.6% expected a decrease.
In addition, trade and service activities are expected to enjoy good growth, especially the tourism sector thanks to strong tourism policies that will promote tourism around the world and stimulate domestic tourism activities. This signals that international tourism activities have recovered to keep pace with the region and the world.
Trade activities are expected to be more vibrant as ministries and sectors continue to implement the “Vietnamese people prioritising Vietnamese goods" programme. This will contribute to promoting the strong development of the domestic market, ensuring balance between supply and demand of essential goods, and stabilising prices of goods circulated in the market.
Regarding agriculture, agro-forestry-fishery production in the first quarter is forecast to enjoy relatively favourable weather conditions, while the prices of some types of agricultural products are expected to rise, motivating farmers to increase investment in production.
For export orders, 24.6% of businesses reported an increase in new orders, 46.8% said they were stable, and 28.6% expected a decrease (Photo: VietnamPlus) Besides, positive results were seen in the registration and disbursement of foreign direct investment in Vietnam in the first two months of this year, showing that foreign investors are confident in Vietnam and continue to choose the country as their investment and business destination, especially in areas with high proportion of science and technologies.
Reporter: In order to ensure economic development targets set by Government and National Assembly, in your opinion, what are the solutions that must be rolled out, especially in the first months of the year?
Ms. Do Thi Ngoc: In their socioeconomic development resolutions for 2024, the National Assembly and the Government set a target of 6-6.5% rise in GDP. In the context that the world and domestic economies continue to face difficulties and challenges, we need to implement some of the following solutions to achieve the set growth goals.
Firstly, it is necessary to stay persistent in maintaining macro-economic stability, controlling prices and markets, and ensuring the supply of goods and the major balances of the economy. Specifically, priority should be given to promoting growth, improving the economy's self-reliance, resilience and adaptability. Forecast scenarios for growth and inflation must be continuously updated for timely response.
Price developments for essential commodities must be closely monitored for the adjustments of power, healthcare and education service prices in a suitable level and at a suitable time to minimise impacts of inflation as well as production and business activities and people’s life.
Secondly, it is crucial to promote consumption and focus on developing the domestic market. Trade promotion programmes need to be implemented effectively while the distribution of goods should be strengthened through digital platforms and e-commerce activities to expand domestic consumption and encourage Vietnamese people to prioritise Vietnamese goods.
Thirdly, we need to concentrate on efficiently rolling out solutions to increase exports and attract foreign investment. The effective implementation of trade promotion activities will create connections of supply and demand, removing obstacles, facilitating domestic consumption and exports of agro-forestry-fisheries products, and diversifying export markets and products. It will also support businesses in exploiting commitments in free trade agreements, while assisting the adjustment of policies to attract more high quality foreign investment.
Fourthly, ministries, sectors, and localities should implement drastic solutions to disburse public investment capital. Investment tasks and projects under the Socioeconomic Recovery and Development Programme in 2024 must be realised quickly and effectively. In addition, management agencies at all levels need to accelerate the completion and implementation of plans and strengthen regional links to create harmonisation, new space, and new motivations for the development of regions as well as regional localities. And
Fifthly, it is crucial to strengthen disease prevention and proactively design plans to prevent natural disasters, giving alerts of floods, landslides, drought, and saltwater intrusion. We must apply appropriate agricultural production plans, provide water for farming activities, and prevent diseases on crops and livestock. And social security, labour and employment policies need to be implemented. Specifically, it is necessary to grasp the labour situation in industrial parks, export processing zones, and economic zones. We must provide support to businesses to overcome labour shortages, and meet human resources demand for production and business activities of enterprises.
Thank you very much!
