An HAH container ship travels along a river (Photo: haiants.vn) SSI Securities forecast that global supply chain disruptions wouldcontinue in early 2023 as logistics facilities are insufficient to meet demand.
New container ships are being constructed to pick up the slack but constructiontakes time. That means the situation would improve slowly and the globalmovements of goods have to depend on China.
Global freight rates are projected to go back to normal in the second half of2023 once preventive measures in many countries, including China, are liftedand the newly-constructed ships launched.
Specifically, total tonnages are expected to climb by 9.9% in 2023 and 11.1% in2024 compared to late 2011, driving down freight rates.
It is also worth noting that the rates would fall but not lower than thepre-pandemic levels since transport firms have to cover higher operating costsand invest in new facilities.
In Vietnam, freight rates are forecast to remain high in 2023 due to shipshortages. The main reason for the shortages is that domestic firms have leasedtheir ships to foreign partners under a long-term arrangement.
Meanwhile, charter rates are projected to hover at peaks in the rest of 2022 andthen fall gradually in 2023 thanks to the construction of new ships. Shipownersare likely to hire out their ships for shorter terms for fear of furtherfalling rates.
Regarding liquid cargo transportation, spot rates and charter rates areexpected to stay stubbornly high in 2023 as the West's sanctions on Russianhave forced the country to redirect its oil exports to more distant countries,fueling the demand for tankers.
Domestic transport firms have been riding high financially and are expected torun profitably in the next six months thanks to high ocean rates.
The Hai An Transport and Stevedoring JSC (HOSE: HAH) topped 324 billion VND (14million USD) in profit in Q2/2022, the highest figure since 2014 and more thantriple the figure last year.
SSI estimates that the company would continue to fare well in the second halfof 2022 owing to favourable freight and charter rates, and maintain themomentum in 2023 owing to operating expansion and new leasing contracts.
The PetroVietnam Transports Corporation (HOSE: PVT) turned a profit of over 440billion VND in the same period, the highest figure since 2007.
SSI forecast that the company's profits would grow slower in the second half of2022 because its leasing contracts involve fixed terms which are less sensitiveto mounting charter rates.
The Vietnam National Shipping Lines (HOSE: MVN) followed suit with the highestprofit since 2018. It raked in over 1.4 trillion VND in Q2/2022, up 95%year-on-year.
With such remarkable six-month earnings, the company has met 84% of its annualprofit target and reduced its accumulated losses by 36%.
Given the Russian-Ukraine conflict is unlikely to end in the short-term, SSIheld that the demand for container transport would slow down whereas the demandfor oil transport soars in 2023.
As a result, freight rates charged by container ships are forecast to graduallyreturn to normal. Their adjustment period depends highly on the situation ofglobal supply chains, which are expected to not improve until late 2023.
SSI believes that oil transport firms would make big money this year and thenext. Meanwhile, container transport firms would fare worse profit-wise./.
VNA
