Illustrative image (Source: baodautu.vn) “As a bank that has been in Vietnam for 151 years, we have been through ups and downs together with this country but we also know that Vietnam always finds a way to overcome obstacles and challenges. The national traits of perseverance and resilience will ensure this once again. Vietnam will prevail and the good times will return,” Evans said.
Vietnam will bounce back and once again prove that when it comes to overcoming a challenge or obstacle, no one does it better than Vietnam, he stressed.
According to the CEO, HSBC is considering two scenarios for Vietnam’s economy until the year-end. In the first scenario, the GDP growth will range from 5-5.5 percent, depending on the speed and effectiveness of the vaccine rollout, the re-opening of the economy and the recovery and resumption of major export markets, given the challenges posed by Delta variant.
In the second scenario, if the vaccination programme is not fast enough and lockdown and social distancing continue to be lengthened, there will be more adverse impact to the economy and there will be increased pressure on supply chains and GDP may only reach 3.5-4 percent.
“Either scenario, the economy needs to be re-opened, though in a cautious and systematic way”, Evans stressed.
He supposed that the country remains a highly attractive investment destination in the medium term. This is based on the country’s robust fundamentals which many investors will look through the present COVID-19 volatilities.
As more economies start to open up in the region on the back of large scale vaccine rollout, this coupled with the ongoing demand from Europe and North America should see positive impact on the exports of technology related products, machinery, footwear, garments, furniture, food, and agricultural products.
Meanwhile, Evans highlighted that the pandemic has accelerated the trends of automation and digitalisation and therefore, Vietnam stands to benefit from this as a significant global producer of tech-related products.
Vietnam’s strong fundamentals remain and the country has built an enviable position in the global supply chain over the past years through its set of free trade agrrements (FTAs).
Strong foreign currency reserves coupled with a stable currency, inflation being under-control, continued strong FDI inflows with an emphasis on the manufacturing sector all position Vietnam will for the future. As a result, HSBC is forecasting GDP growth of 6.8 percent for the country in 2022 with a bullish outlook for the mid and long term./.
VNA
