Illustrative image (Source: baodautu.vn) “As a bank that has been in Vietnam for 151 years, we havebeen through ups and downs together with this country but we also know thatVietnam always finds a way to overcome obstacles and challenges. The nationaltraits of perseverance and resilience will ensure this once again. Vietnam willprevail and the good times will return,” Evans said.
Vietnam will bounce back and once again prove that when itcomes to overcoming a challenge or obstacle, no one does it better thanVietnam, he stressed.
According to the CEO, HSBC is considering two scenarios for Vietnam’s economy until the year-end. In the first scenario, the GDP growth will rangefrom 5-5.5 percent, depending on the speed and effectiveness of the vaccinerollout, the re-opening of the economy and the recovery and resumption of majorexport markets, given the challenges posed by Delta variant.
In the second scenario, if the vaccination programme is notfast enough and lockdown and social distancing continue to be lengthened, therewill be more adverse impact to the economy and there will be increased pressureon supply chains and GDP may only reach 3.5-4 percent.
“Either scenario, the economy needs to be re-opened, thoughin a cautious and systematic way”, Evans stressed.
He supposed that the country remains ahighly attractive investment destination in the medium term. This is based onthe country’s robust fundamentals which many investors will look through thepresent COVID-19 volatilities.
As more economies start to open up in the region on the backof large scale vaccine rollout, this coupled with the ongoing demand from Europe and North America should see positive impact on the exports oftechnology related products, machinery, footwear, garments, furniture, food,and agricultural products.
Meanwhile, Evans highlighted that the pandemic hasaccelerated the trends of automation and digitalisation and therefore, Vietnamstands to benefit from this as a significant global producer of tech-relatedproducts.
Vietnam’s strong fundamentals remain and the country hasbuilt an enviable position in the global supply chain over the past yearsthrough its set of free trade agrrements (FTAs).
Strong foreign currency reserves coupled with a stablecurrency, inflation being under-control, continued strong FDI inflows with anemphasis on the manufacturing sector all position Vietnam will for the future.As a result, HSBC is forecasting GDP growth of 6.8 percent for the country in 2022 with abullish outlook for the mid and long term./.
VNA
