Illustrative image (Source: VNA) Hanoi (VNA) – The Vietnam Economic Yearbook 2019points out two scenarios for the country’s economy this year, according towhich the growth rate will be over 6.5 percent in the new context of the world.
The book, made public at a conference held on May 29 jointlyby the Vietnam National University and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation,focuses on the country’s economy on the threshold of the digital economy whichposes mew challenges in face of the possibility of breaking the sectoral andmarket structure, together with the shift of the whole global systems ofproduction, management and administration.
In the first scenario, Vietnam’s economy will grow by 6.56percent, almost equal to the target set by the National Assembly. Nguyen DucThanh, Director of the Vietnam Economic Policy Research Institute and a memberof the study group, held that this scenario is possible in the context of theunfavourable economic conditions in the world as a result of the escalation ofthe US – China trade war which leads to Vietnam’s more serious trade deficitwith China.
According to the second scenario, which is more likely thanthe first, the growth will be 6.81 percent, equal to the NA-set target. Thiscan be made possible by the impact of the growth last year, coupled withefforts by the Government in improving the competitiveness and productivity.
The book also predicts that inflation this year will be harderto control and can amount to 4 -5 percent as a result of many internal andexternal factors. In order to reign in inflation, management offices will haveto maintain a close watch on the developments of prices in the second half ofthe year, and the State Bank of Vietnam will have to keep its cautious monetarypolicy in the time to come.
Besides analyzing and assessing the economic situation inthe world and Vietnam, the book also assesses and predicts the future forVietnam’s digital economy, and points out chances as well as challenges forVietnamese enterprises and society in the new context.-VNA
VNA
