The Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) hosts a seminar reviewing the local economy in Hanoi (Photo cafe.vn)
Hanoi (VNA) - TheCentral Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) said with good results inpreventing the pandemic and the chance for economic recovery, Vietnam still needs to be cautious in the second half of the year.
Hosting the seminar ‘Vietnam's economy in the first half of 2020:Enabling regulatory approach for the new normal’ in Hanoi on July 10, CIEMreleased a report analyzing macro-economicdevelopment in January-June and assessing prospects for the entire year.
Thereport said the national economy was facing serious difficulties as the world economy has been heavilyaffected by COVID-19, adding the local GDP growth rate decreased to 1.81 percent in the first half, the lowest in the past 12years but still a high level compared to other countries in the region.
Declines in growth were seen inmost economic sectors, including the agriculture-forestry-fishery sector,construction and business.
The business sector faced manydifficulties due to the direct impact of the pandemic, significantly affectingemployment. According to the General Statistics Office, by mid-April 2020,nearly 5 million workers were affected by the pandemic, overall unemploymentincreased to 2.73 percent in the second quarter.
The average inflation in thefirst six months of the year reached 4.19 percent due to the rise in prices ofessential commodities.
Nguyen Anh Duong, head of CIEM's MacroeconomicPolicy Department, said governments of many countriesincluding Vietnam have enacted new supportivemeasures to deal with the pandemic and are not yet able to recognise and assessthe impacts fully.
Duong presented scenarios for Vietnam's economy in 2020. In the firstscenario, the economic growth may reach 2.1 percent, exports for the whole yearwere forecast to decrease 3.1 percent while the trade surplus would be 1.7billion USD and the average inflation wouldbe 4.3 percent.
Healso mentioned the second scenario in which economic growth would be 2.6percent with better statistics.
The CIEM’s official forecast forVietnam's economic development inthe last six months of 2020 said it might be affected by a number of keyfactors, such as an uncertain world economy, especially the possibility of asecond outbreak of the virus.
Manyeconomies have been implementing large-scale support packages which could posesignificant risks to the world financial market and global debt situation. Inaddition, trade tensions among major economies could be more complicated.
Atthe same time, Duong saidwith high expectations of the positive impact of the EVFTA, Vietnam could face trade-defence lawsuits andinvestigations against tax avoidance and origin fraud in some markets.
CIEM emphasised the country should focus on improving themicroeconomic foundation and renovating the economic institutional systemtowards improving the resilience of the economy in the ‘new normal’./.
