Vietnamese have a very high level of optimism about the future thatmakes the outlook for Vietnamese consumer spending exciting, accordingto an economist from ANZ.
Glenn Maguire, the bank's chiefeconomist for the Asia-Pacific, said 92 percent of respondents in an ANZsurvey on Vietnam consumer confidence believed that theirgeneration would lead a better life than that of their parents.
He was speaking at the July 11 launch of the bank's first monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for Vietnam.
It was done in the first half in partnership with Australian firm RoyMorgan Research, polling 1,000 people aged 14 or above in major citiesand provinces like Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, Hai Phong, Quang Binh, DaNang, Nha Trang, and Can Tho.
Around 93 percent also believed that their children would have a better life than their own.
Vietnam ranked second only to Myanmar , whose rates were 96 and95 percent respectively, and was above countries like China ,Indonesia , Thailand , and Japan.
But Vietnam 'sconfidence level has been declining, with the CCI falling to 131 in Junefrom 136.4 in February and March. But it was higher than April's 130and May's 123, the lowest.
On the scale, 100 represents neutral.
This CCI is based on aspects in which respondents believe they werebetter or worse off this time last year and will be better/worse nextyear, their expectations about their financial status in the next 12months, the status of Vietnam in the next five years, as well as whetherit is a good or bad time for buying major household items.
Interms of personal finances, 48 per cent of Vietnamese (highest in theyear-to-date and up 9 percent from May) expected their family to bebetter off, while 8 percent (down 6 percent) expect to be worse.
Around 32 percent (highest in year-to-date) said their family isbetter off than a year ago compared to 20 percent (down 7 percent) whosaid the opposite.
Almost 57 percent (up 5 percent) hoped theywould have a "good time" economically in the next five years compared to11 percent who await a "bad time".
Asked about the next 12months, 49 percent said Vietnam would have good times financiallywhile 16 percent expected bad times, with both rates remaining unchangedfrom May.
Over 38 percent (up 5 percent) said now is the goodtime to buy major household items while 14 percent (down 2 percent)considered it bad.
"Vietnamese consumer confidence hasrebounded strongly over June on a number of factors, not just anabatement of China-Vietnam tensions," Maguire said.
"Though thesharp CCI decline in May aligned with the growing political tensions,we believe this was correlated rather than causal.
"One of thekey determinants of the consumer confidence in Vietnam appears tobe wealth effects derived from both the share market and the gold price,and consumer confidence has been tracking the evolution of financialassets closely since the beginning of the year."
He noted thatthis dynamic highlights the importance of income/wealth dynamics indriving consumer confidence in economies such as Vietnam that aretransiting from low-income to middle-income.-VNA
Glenn Maguire, the bank's chiefeconomist for the Asia-Pacific, said 92 percent of respondents in an ANZsurvey on Vietnam consumer confidence believed that theirgeneration would lead a better life than that of their parents.
He was speaking at the July 11 launch of the bank's first monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for Vietnam.
It was done in the first half in partnership with Australian firm RoyMorgan Research, polling 1,000 people aged 14 or above in major citiesand provinces like Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, Hai Phong, Quang Binh, DaNang, Nha Trang, and Can Tho.
Around 93 percent also believed that their children would have a better life than their own.
Vietnam ranked second only to Myanmar , whose rates were 96 and95 percent respectively, and was above countries like China ,Indonesia , Thailand , and Japan.
But Vietnam 'sconfidence level has been declining, with the CCI falling to 131 in Junefrom 136.4 in February and March. But it was higher than April's 130and May's 123, the lowest.
On the scale, 100 represents neutral.
This CCI is based on aspects in which respondents believe they werebetter or worse off this time last year and will be better/worse nextyear, their expectations about their financial status in the next 12months, the status of Vietnam in the next five years, as well as whetherit is a good or bad time for buying major household items.
Interms of personal finances, 48 per cent of Vietnamese (highest in theyear-to-date and up 9 percent from May) expected their family to bebetter off, while 8 percent (down 6 percent) expect to be worse.
Around 32 percent (highest in year-to-date) said their family isbetter off than a year ago compared to 20 percent (down 7 percent) whosaid the opposite.
Almost 57 percent (up 5 percent) hoped theywould have a "good time" economically in the next five years compared to11 percent who await a "bad time".
Asked about the next 12months, 49 percent said Vietnam would have good times financiallywhile 16 percent expected bad times, with both rates remaining unchangedfrom May.
Over 38 percent (up 5 percent) said now is the goodtime to buy major household items while 14 percent (down 2 percent)considered it bad.
"Vietnamese consumer confidence hasrebounded strongly over June on a number of factors, not just anabatement of China-Vietnam tensions," Maguire said.
"Though thesharp CCI decline in May aligned with the growing political tensions,we believe this was correlated rather than causal.
"One of thekey determinants of the consumer confidence in Vietnam appears tobe wealth effects derived from both the share market and the gold price,and consumer confidence has been tracking the evolution of financialassets closely since the beginning of the year."
He noted thatthis dynamic highlights the importance of income/wealth dynamics indriving consumer confidence in economies such as Vietnam that aretransiting from low-income to middle-income.-VNA
