Enthusiastic working atmosphere at a business. (Photo: Vietnam+) Hanoi (VNA)- HSBC Vietnam's research department has just released its economic assessment report for Vietnam in 2022, in which it forecast that Vietnam will be one of the fastest growing countries in the region this year.
HSBC experts said that Vietnam is a rare country to maintain growth for two consecutive years since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Southeast Asian Tiger nation is currently considered a bright spot in the region due to its solid economic development potential and strong economic growth recovery post pandemic.
They pointed out that like the general situation in the world, Vietnam started the year with solid steps. Following the strategy of "living together with the virus", Vietnam implemented a rapid vaccination program and gradually removed epidemic prevention measures to help restore domestic consumption demand.
Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in the first six months of the year increased by 11.7% over the same period last year. Industrial production continued its steady growth with a rate of 8.48% over the same period in 2021, of which mobile phone components increased by 22.2%.
Thanks to a steady inflow of FDI over the years into the technology manufacturing industry, Vietnam has grown into becoming one of the world’s factories. Samsung corporation has decided to build the group's largest research and development center in Southeast Asia worth 220 million USD in Hanoi. Apple has moved 11 factories in its supply chain from Taiwan (China) to Vietnam.
Meanwhile, export growth in the first 6 months increased by 17.3% over the same period last year. All indicators positively contributed to GDP growth in the second quarter reaching 7.72% over the same period last year, bringing GDP growth in the first 6 months to 6.42%.
Vietnam's credit growth as of June 30 reached 9.35%, much higher than the same period last year. Compared to the State Bank's target of 14%, the credit limit for the whole system remains. The State Bank of Vietnam is still closely monitoring the market and may adjust in the second half of 2022 with a stable and flexible steps in line with actual conditions. The most important goal is to provide sufficient capital for economic growth but still have to control inflation effectively.
Ngo Dang Khoa, Country Head of Foreign Exchange, Capital Markets and Securities Services Division at the HSBC Vietnam said: “We especially welcome the Vietnamese government's support for businesses such as grant programs of 2% interest rate compensation to help businesses access low-cost capital, restore production and business activities when Vietnam reopens, thereby also promoting economic recovery and development.”
In the first 6 months, there were 76,200 newly-registered enterprises, up 13.6% over the same period last year, and nearly 40,700 enterprises returning to operation.
In particular, in the first half of the year, Vietnam welcomed 602,000 international visitors, 6.8 times higher than the same period last year.
All signs show that Vietnam is on a steady recovery. HSBC has raised its growth forecast for the whole year 2022 to 6.9% (from 6.2% and 6.6%). It is likely that Vietnam's growth rate will lead the region.
According to Mr. Khoa, although the overall situation seems to be optimistic, the factors hindering growth are still there. Specifically, Vietnam is facing a series of challenges in the context of high world fuel prices. That will cause fuel costs to increase, adversely affecting Vietnam's trade balance.
In addition, HSBC experts said that Vietnam needs to pay close attention to the "headwinds" that hinder trade growth, which are getting stronger./.
