Vietnam’s electricity output forecast to rise to 950 billion kWh by 2045

Vietnam’s electricity output is forecast to rise to 950 billion kWh by 2045 to meet the growing demand for economic expansion.
Vietnam’s electricity output forecast to rise to 950 billion kWh by 2045 ảnh 1Illustrative image (Photo: baodautu.vn)
Hanoi (VNS/VNA) – Vietnam’s electricity output isforecast to rise to 950 billion kWh by 2045 to meet the growing demand foreconomic expansion.

Vice President of the Vietnam Energy Association Nguyen Van Vy gave thisestimate at a forum on solutions to develop renewable energy held in Hanoi onOctober 28.

Development of clean andrenewable energy is an irreversible trend around the world, changing thestructure of the energy sector. Many countries around the world have urgentlydeveloped and implemented policies to promote renewable energy with a long-termvision, investing in human resources, technology and finance-credits towardsbuilding a low carbon economy.

Vietnam has many favourable conditions to develop different renewable energysources. The annual average number of sunshine hours in the North ranges from1,500-1,700 hours and up to 2,700 hours in the South Central provinces. Solarradiation density varies between 3,000 and 5,000 kCal/m2/day.

The Earth Win Map estimates more than 39 percent of Vietnam’s land area has anaverage annual wind speed of over 63/s at an altitude of 65m and 8 per cent ofthe land area has an average wind speed of over 7m/s, which is suitable forlarge wind power stations.

According to Vy, as Vietnam’s economy continued growing quickly, demand forprimary energy sources is expected to increase by 4.6 per cent per year, from105 MTOE (million tonnes of oil equivalent) in 2020 to 321 MTOE by 2045.

Over the past 10 years, electricity production has increased by more than 2.3times, from 101.4 billion kWh in 2010 to nearly 235 billion kWh in 2019. Vietnam’selectricity output is forecast to continue rising, at an average rate of 5.6percent per year from 245 billion kWh in 2020 to 950 billion kWh by 2045.

“Although the rate of fossil fuel use in electricity production is forecast todecrease, fossil fuel sources (coal and gas) still account for a largeproportion. This will put great pressure on exhausted natural resources, andthe increasing demand for fuel imports for electricity generation will greatlyaffect climate change and energy security,” Vy said.

“Therefore, the development of renewable energy should be paid higher attentionfor rapid development in the future.”

The Politburo’s Resolution No. 55-NQ/TW on Vietnam’s national energydevelopment strategy to 2045, issued in February this year, has seta target for renewable energy to account for about 15-20 percent of totalelectricity supply by 2030 and 25-30 percent by 2045.

To achieve these goals, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has advised andsubmitted to the Prime Minister for promulgation mechanisms to encourage thedevelopment of wind power, biomass power, power generation from solid waste andsolar power.

Such policies include support mechanisms for purchasing biomass, solar and windpower, incentives for corporate income tax, import tax, VAT tax and land-usetax.

Data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) showed by the end ofSeptember, the installed capacity of wind power reached 485MW, solar power5,829MW, biomass power 169MQ.

Ending September, electricity generated from wind power reached 630 millionkWh, solar power 7,274 million kWh, biomass power 303 million kWh, accountingfor 4.4 percent of total electricity output nationwide.

As for rooftop solar power, by mid-October more than 57,000 systems have beeninstalled with a total capacity of 1,747MWp.

Do Duc Quan, deputy director of MoIT’s Department of Electricity and RenewableEnergy, said the orientation in the future will focus on developing policies,transmission infrastructure and system operation regulations.

“In terms of policies, large-scale renewable energy projects will apply thebidding mechanism following which a selected developer will be the one offeringthe lowest electricity price from ground-mounted and floating solar powerprojects,” Quan said.

According to him, the bidding mechanism will take more time but be more fairand transparent for investors, ensuring harmony between the number of renewableenergy power projects and capacity of transmission grids./.
VNA

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