Different scenarios for VN-Index in Q4 hinh anh 1Customers at a Vietcombank branch in HCM City. (Photo: VNA)

Hanoi (VNS/VNA)
- Brokerages proposed different scenarios for the movement of VN-Index from now until the end of the year depending on the world's economic growth prospects.

The benchmark VN-Index on the Ho Chi Minh Exchange slid 0.49 percent to close at 987.59 points.

The index lost 1.03 last week.

On the Hanoi Stock Exchange, the HNX-Index dropped 0.05 percent to end Friday at 105.16 points, totalling a weekly rise of 0.37 percent.

An average of 217.3 million shares were traded on each session last week, worth 4.8 trillion VND (204 million USD).

According to BIDV Securities Company (BSC), based on the evaluation of domestic and foreign impact factors, the VN-Index can range from 940 to 1,050 points, of which the key price area is around 980 points.

“We forecast that the VN-Index will rebound up to 1,015 - 1,025 points in October. If this short-term peak is not reached, the VN-Index is likely to return to accumulate around 980 points in November and recover gradually in December,” BSC said.

In the fourth quarter, BSC proposed two scenarios for VN-Index.

“In a positive case, VN-Index closed above 1,000 points at the end of the year (an increase compared to 980 points in the six-month report). The trend is still moving around large-cap stocks, stocks that had full foreign ownership in the new index are expected to attract new foreign capital inflows.”

In the second scenario, “VN-Index may drop below 960 points when encountering unfavourable news from the world and international capital flows are not strong enough to spread to markets.”

In September, foreign investors were net sellers on the HSX with 378.9 billion VND, and they net sold 28.4 billion VND on the HNX.

In Q3, foreign investors net bought 162.5 billion VND on the HSX, and net sold 413.3 billion VND on the HNX.

According to Hoang Thach Lan, head of individual investor division at Viet Dragon Securities JSC (VDSC), the world was still in a state of instability.

“When there's still no clear outcome to the ongoing trade war between the US and China, the US and EU are on the verge of a new tariff war, which will strongly affect the investment decisions of ETFs,” Lan said.

The stocks that contributed the most to the increase of VN-Index in the first nine months of this year were Vietcombank (VCB), Vingroup (VIC), Vinhomes (VHM) and PetroVietnam Gas JSC (GAS).

Vietcombank contributed 31.81 points (3.56 percent) to the VN-Index. In nine months, VCB's share increased from 53,500 VND per share to 82,100 VND per share, equivalent to 53.5 percent.

VCB’s rally was attributed to positive business results. In the first six months of 2019, the bank's profit after tax reached 9 trillion VND, an increase of 41 percent over the same period last year, continuing to maintain the leading position in the banking system's profits.

Vingroup (VIC) contributed to the VN-Index 23.98 points (2.69 percent), while VHM added 17 points (1.92 percent). After nine months, VIC shares increased by 25.7 percent, VHM rose by 23.1 percent.

Vingroup is still the largest enterprise in the stock market by capitalisation with 394.8 trillion VND. It operates in various fields of real estate, hospitality, retail, education, health care, car and smartphone manufacturing, artificial intelligence research.

Vinhomes, a subsidiary of Vingroup, achieved 26 trillion VND in revenue in the first six months this year, up 72 percent year-on-year. Profit after tax reached 11 trillion VND, up 36.6 percent year-on-year.

In the opposite direction, Bao Viet Holdings (BVH) put the biggest pressure on VN-Index in the past nine months.

BVH took away 3.02 points (0.34 percent) of VN-Index by reducing by nearly 6 percent in nine months, from 89,000 VND per share to 74,800 VND per share.

After-tax profit of BVH reached only 670.8 billion VND in after-tax profit, down 20 percent over the same period last year./.