Jakarta (VNA) - Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia's senior economist Fithra Faisal Hastiadi has cautioned that President Prabowo Subianto's priority programme for providing free nutritious meals can significantly widen the country's 2025 budget deficit.
Fithra projected the deficit could exceed the target by 200 trillion IDR (12.2 billion USD).
The government initially planned a fiscal deficit of 2.53% of gross domestic product (GDP), equivalent to 616.2 trillion IDR. However, Fithra predicted the deficit may reach 2.9% of GDP.
He said this means the fiscal deficit next year might not be 600 trillion IDR, but potentially as high as 800 trillion IDR.
Fithra referred to an Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) projection, which estimates that spending on the free nutritious meals programme will exceed the allocated 71 trillion IDR in 2025.
According to the OECD’s Economic Surveys: Indonesia 2024, published last November, the primary challenges in implementing the programme are logistics for nationwide food distribution and funding. The report estimates that the programme will cost 4.3 billion USD under the 2025 budget.
However, expenses could surge to 30 billion USD, representing a 14% increase over the government’s current budget.
Head of the National Nutrition Agency (BGN) Dadan Hindayana has recommended an additional 100 trillion IDR allocation to meet the target number of beneficiaries by the end of 2025.
He said the agency proposes an additional 100 trillion IDR to provide meals for all 82.9 million beneficiaries. Currently, the programme’s allocated budget of 71 trillion IDR under the 2025 state budget is insufficient to cover all targeted recipients.
The programme, a key component of Prabowo’s campaign, allocates IDR 10,000 per child and pregnant woman daily, down from the previous allocation of 15,000 IDR. Based on BGN calculations, this reduced budget will only benefit 17.5 million recipients through September 2025./.
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