Hanoi (VNA) - The growth for the second quarter and the first six months of the year are forecast to reach the levels set in Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP at 6.2% and 6% respectively. However, Nguyen Duc Tam, Director of the General Economic Department, MPI, emphasized that the economy is expected to face difficulties in the second half of the year.
Tam explained that while growth drivers have shown positive changes, they have not yet created a breakthrough for 2024 growth.
Specifically, the agriculture sector's stable growth (around 3%-4%) is insufficient to drive overall economic growth. Transformation in the industrial sector is slow due to its heavy reliance on global markets and major economies. Additionally, the service-tourism sector, despite showing improvement, lacks a breakthrough and faces intense competition from international destinations, necessitating further promotion to unleash its growth potential for 2024.
Emerging growth drivers such as the digital economy, green economy, chip production, and semiconductors are developing slowly, risking falling behind other countries, particularly as large-scale policy packages have been introduced to boost these areas.
Businesses face three major challenges: market, capital, and legal issues, including cumbersome regulations, administrative procedures, technical standards, and business conditions that have not been thoroughly streamlined.
Tam noted that domestic consumption increased in the first five months of the year, but annual growth is unlikely to reach the high levels seen in 2023 and pre-pandemic years (2015-2019). Stronger policies are needed to encourage domestic consumption to become a growth driver.
Mentioning export, Tam said, the global market harbors many risks, including increased competition and new anti-dumping tariffs and trade barriers.
This requires businesses to meet new green and sustainable requirements, alongside significant investment in a short time.
In terms of investment, he highlighted the slow recovery of the private sector and the declining monthly trend in foreign direct investment (FDI) registration, which could impact medium- and long-term growth.
Tam stated that the MPI will continue advising the Government on key tasks and solutions.
First, the Ministry will capture business recommendations and advise the Government to direct ministries and sectors to review and immediately remove unreasonable, unnecessary administrative regulations, standards, and business conditions.
A focus will be on advising the development of a green economy system and regulations for green transition and circular economy development.
Secondly, the MPI recommends continuing to stimulate and renew domestic consumption, investment, and export drivers, striving for GDP growth to reach the upper target range set by the National Assembly (6%-6.5%).
Thirdly, it is crucial to closely monitor inflation, providing key analysis and forecasts to advise the Government promptly on solutions to manage prices and ensure inflation control remains at the lower end of the target range (4%-4.5%)./.
