High-end apartment projects in Thu Thiem urban area of Thu Duc city, with prices reaching up to 10,000 USD per square metre. (Photo: VNA) Experts have warned the market will continue to struggle withlimited access to capital, legal bottlenecks and the inability of companies toredeem bonds.
In the most optimistic scenario, the market will face at least twomore challenging quarters before entering a recovery phase in the second halfof 2024.
Different property segments will require different amounts of timeto regain liquidity and reach their full potential, according to the experts.
A report by the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Brokers showedthat liquidity in the property market has been gradually improving, with 6,000transactions recorded in the third quarter, a surge from previous quarters.
Vo Hong Thang, Director of the DKRA Group Market, said more than4,800 newly sold properties, accounting for 70% of supply, were recorded in thesouthern region in the third quarter.
Thang, however, pointed out that a strong recovery was notexpected in the near future. The earliest recovery would occur in the secondhalf of 2024.
Initially, properties that meet demand, such as social housing,mid-range and high-end apartments, and land in major economic areas, wouldexperience the first signs of recovery.
Other market segments, such as speculative properties, would takemuch longer to regain liquidity.
Duong Thuy Dung, Senior Director of CBRE Vietnam, said themid-range and affordable apartment segment would observe the first upwardmovement in the third quarter of 2024.
Other property types, such as land plots, villas, and townhouses,might require until the end of 2024 or early 2025 to recover, she added.
Le Dnh Chung, CEO of SGO Homes, recommended that the Governmentcontinue to issue mechanisms and policies to improve supply and purchasingpower.
Currently, supply remains stagnant with only about 10% of projectsbeing approved. Though loan interest rates have decreased, they are stillrelatively high.
A recent survey conducted by Batdongsan website indicated thatbetween 40-42% of real estate brokers believed that the recovery of the landplots and low-rise housing segments would occur in the second half of 2024.
The outlook for apartments is more positive, with 42% expectingimprovement in the first two quarters of 2024 and 30% predicting recovery inthe last two quarters of the year, according to the survey.
Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of Batdongsan, said eachsegment would have a different recovery time, but the slowest would be in thefourth quarter of 2024 when government policies fully permeate the market.
Dr. Su Ngoc Khuong, Senior Director of Savills Vietnam, said therecovery of the market largely depended on macroeconomic policies and thegeneral economic situation.
It’s positive that fiscal and monetary policies were being wellmanaged and the government had constantly issued solutions to address thehurdles faced by real estate firms, he said.
The Land Law of 2023, if implemented on schedule, would beeffective in the second half of next year, which would help to addressbottlenecks in project approvals in new residential areas and restore housingsupply in the 2024-2025 period, he noted.
Experts said the recovery of the real estate market would notfollow a V-shaped pattern but rather a U-shaped pattern.
They predicted the sector would not grow strongly until at least2025.
To help the market recover and develop sustainably, theyrecommended increasing the supply of affordable housing.
It was vital to issue specific regulations to speed up theimplementation of the 120 trillion VND support package for financing social andworker housing projects, experts noted./.
VNA
